April 26, 2004

QUOTABLES:

"We have two parallel universes," John Kenneth White, author of "The Values Divide," said. "Each side seeks to reinforce its thinking by associating with like-minded people."

JUST POLITICS

I’ve made up my mind

The Washington Post has a great story about the divided country. It quotes the Pew Research poll that shows an inordinate number of Americans have made up their mind regarding the 2004 election:

[S]even in 10, according to one Pew Research Center poll -- say they have already made up their minds and cannot be swayed.

The reason for this is:

This split is nurtured by the marketing efforts of the major parties, which increasingly aim pinpoint messages to certain demographic groups, rather than seeking broadly appealing new themes. It is reinforced by technology, geography and strategy. And now it is driving the presidential campaign, and explains why many experts anticipate a particularly bitter and divisive election.

The Washington Post is going to provide analogies through profiles of those who represent the "red" and "blue” states. However, the Post article attempted to try and explain how we got here:

Hans Noel, a political scientist at the University of California at Los Angeles, is the author of a paper called "The Road to Red and Blue America." In an interview, he said, "Most people say they are 'moderate,' but in fact the country is polarized around strong conservative and liberal positions." For the first time in generations, he said, those philosophical lines correspond to party lines. The once-hardy species of conservative Democrats -- so numerous in the 1980s they had a name, "Reagan Democrats" -- is now on the endangered list, along with the liberal "Rockefeller Republicans."

"It has taken 40 or 50 years to work itself out, but the ideological division in America -- which is not new -- is now lined up with the party division," Noel said.

Part of the reason for this is the political phenomenon where like-minded people tend to live with each other. Everyone has known for decades if you wanted to register more Democrats or Republicans, you would go to the neighborhoods that voted heavily for the party you wanted to register. Today, partisan voting habits are targeted by activity or affiliation. Hence, the Republicans targeting the "NASCAR dads."

The post references the academician who has studied this phenomenon and its changing nature of political segregation:

At the same time, more and more Americans in a highly mobile society are choosing to live among like-minded people. University of Maryland political demographer James Gimpel has documented the rise of a "patchwork nation," in which political like attracts like, and ideologically diverse communities are giving way to same-thinking islands. A recent analysis, sponsored by the Austin American-Statesman comparing the photo-finish elections of 1976 and 2000, made this clear. While the nationwide results were extremely close, nearly twice as many voters now live in counties where one candidate or the other won by a landslide. Person by person, family by family, America is engaging in voluntary political segregation.

Thus, the key to wining this election is firing up your core voters and running enough negative ads to make the weak of heart not show up. It is similar to the political effect of the American Revolution and the American Civil War or if you are from the South, the War Between the States.

When the passionate divide this country between strong positions and philosophical perspective, a large portion of the country does not participate. The negative ads are directed at the favorable leaning independents of the opposition party. It is all part of the theory of feedback loop communication and the implementation of the social-psychological aspect of cognitive dissonance. All of this is to get the independents to not participate.

Who are they:

The Washington Post article tries to identify the divide:

According to a recent survey by pollster John Zogby, voters in states that went for Bush were, by clear statistical margins, older, more likely to be married, less likely to join a union, more likely to be regular churchgoers -- mostly at Protestant churches -- and far more likely to be "born again" Christians.

Another prominent opinion sampler, Stanley B. Greenberg, has made similar findings. Blue Americans, he concluded, are most likely to be found among highly educated women, non-churchgoers, union members and the "cosmopolitans" of the New York area, New England and California.

The article also cites the changing times of Reagan, Peace, Clinton, and Technology as factors in the nation’s divide. However, the real divide is that our Founding Fathers understood that a democratic majority could implement tyranny in the same manner as a dictator. So, they created a Republic. Hence, it is all about the geography. A geography dominated by the convenience of mobilization. A geography dominated by history. A geography that has resulted in a philosophical schism.

The outcome of this election is all about getting the party faithful to turnout in 18 key states. The country is "red" and "blue"… all except 18 states.