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Iowa primary precinct caucus and caucuses news">
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Iowa primary precinct caucus and caucuses news, reports
and information on 2004 Democrat and Republican candidates, campaigns
and issues
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Iowa
Presidential Watch's IOWA
DAILY REPORT Holding
the Democrats accountable today, tomorrow...forever. |
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PAGE 1
Monday,
Aug. 4, 2003
Quotable:
''Ultimately,
voters are going to decide a small-town
physician from a small and atypical state is
probably not qualified to lead this nation in
a dangerous world.''
– Kerry campaign manager Jim Jordan
Quotable: ‘If
Kerry can't stop Dean by himself here, maybe
he can help Gephardt do it. Look for the Kerry
campaign to eventually tell its supporters to
caucus with Gephardt's preference group if
they can't become viable on their own at a
caucus.”
– Des Moines Register columnist David
Yepsen, analyzing yesterday’s Iowa Pol
Quotable: “When
it comes to the Democratic debate on the
economy during these early days of August, one
can truthfully say, it’s not the heat, it’s
the stupidity…Good thing none of these guys is
electable.”
– New Hampshire Sunday News, excerpt
from editorial.
 |
Notable Quotable:
Yes,
Joe Lieberman still keeps in touch
with Al Gore. And yes, "We remain
good friends," said the 2000 Democratic
vice presidential nominee. "I seek his
advice." But no, "I'm not going to answer
that question" about what that advice
might be. Except for this: When people ask
what the advice is, Lieberman said,
"His advice
was don't answer the question."
–
Item by David Lightman, Hartford Courant |
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GENERAL
NEWS:
Among
the offerings in today's update:
-
Dean surge splits Kerry camp
– whether to attack or not attack?
-
New Hampshire Sunday News
editorial says leading Dem wannabes lost in
an “economic fog” – which is why it’s good
none can be elected
-
Vegas checks in on ’04 race:
Bush 3-5, Kerry 4-1, Dean 10-1,
Gephardt 12-1. Lieberman, Edwards and Graham
15-1. Sharpton 1,000-1
-
Register political columnist
Yepsen analyzes the latest Iowa Poll –
reminds wannabes of the IA Dem 15% threshold
that could sidetrack January showings
-
In Waterloo, Moseley Braun
defends her candidacy
-
Kerry to launch Internet
petition drive today on overtime revisions.
Dean manager accuses him of taking a page
“straight out of our book.” Kerry accuses
GWB of a “sneak attack on basic worker
rights” for pushing overtime changes
-
Washington Times report: Iraq
casualties could become “a serious political
problem,” but not “any time soon”
-
In New Hampshire, Dean keeps
hitting Bush – “I would never send U. S.
troops abroad without telling them the
truth”
-
Washington Post: After first
raising money, Edwards drops behind other
wannabes – and is now forced to play
catch-up, if he can
-
San Francisco Chronicle:
Iraq issues continue to divide Dem field,
Lieberman takes lead in attack on Dean and
other antiwar rivals
-
Sign of the political times –
Soccer Moms of 2000 replaced by “NASCAR
Dads” of 2004
-
LA Times reports that “many
Republicans up for reelection next year
remain edgy as they await clearer signs of a
sustained recovery”
-
Poll: Hispanics undecided on
GWB, favor his approach on tax cuts and
vouchers – but tend to vote for Dems
-
Iowaism: Up, up and away in
Indianola. National Balloon Classic
comes to town
All these stories below and more.
… Morning reports dominated by report that a
Dubuque soldier – Army Pvt. Michael
J. Deutsch – was killed on Thursday in Baghdad.
Reports disagree about whether he was the
third or fourth Iowan killed during the Iraq
hostilities, but the correct number is four.
CANDIDATES
& CAUCUSES:
… Wannabes
in Iowa: Kerry, after third-place showing
in yesterday’s Iowa Poll, returns to Iowa
today with scheduled stops in Des Moines
and western IA. Five candidates – Dean,
Lieberman, Graham, Kucinich and
Sharpton – due in the state on Wednesday.
Wannabe forecast: Expect the Dem hopefuls to
be in IA over the next couple weeks, starting
with the Wednesday night parade to kickoff
the state’s foremost politician magnet – the
fabulous Iowa State Fair.
…
Dean-Kerry battle now reduced to dispute over
Kerry’s plan for an Internet petition drive on
overtime proposal. Dean manager responds by
saying the Mass Sen is taking a page “straight
out of our book.” Headline from this
morning’s The Union Leader: “Kerry to
launch Internet petition drive on overtime”
Excerpt from report by AP Iowa caucus-watcher
Mike Glover: “Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry
planned to launch an Internet-based petition
drive today aimed at protesting the Bush
administration’s proposal to revamp overtime
pay standards. Kerry planned to use a
meeting with key labor activists to launch the
drive, becoming the first to sign the protest
petition on his campaign’s Web site. In
remarks prepared for delivery at the event,
Kerry warns that under the proposed standards,
as many as 8 million workers — including
firefighters and police officers — could lose
the ability to collect time-and-a-half pay
when they work more than 40 hours in a week.
‘For more than 60 years, the 40-hour work week
and overtime pay have protected workers from
exploitation — and rewarded hard work,’ said
Kerry, in remarks provided to The
Associated Press. ‘But under the radar
screen, while everyone’s attention was focused
elsewhere, George Bush has launched a sneak
attack on basic worker rights.’ Kerry
was launching the petition drive after a
private meeting with leaders of the largest
union representing state workers, an important
player in Democratic politics in the state
where precinct caucuses will launch the
Presidential nominating season next January.
Representing more than 20,000 state workers,
Council 61 of the American Federation of
State, County and Municipal Employees has a
long history of political activism. Kerry
was courting favor by focusing on the overtime
issues close to the hearts of organized
labor. In addition, Kerry was following in
the footsteps of one of his Democratic rivals
by using the Internet for his latest effort.
Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean has
aggressively used the Internet to build a
network of 200,000 volunteers and surpass his
Democratic rivals in raising money, much of
that money being generated online. Dean
campaign manager Joe Trippi dismissed the
latest Kerry move. ‘It’s taking something
straight out of our book, and that’s all
right,’ Trippi said. In his speech,
Kerry focused his fire on Bush, hoping to
build backing in one of the cornerstones of
the Democratic coalition, in a race that’s
increasingly competitive. Polls have shown
Dean and Kerry bunched together
in New Hampshire, evidence that Dean’s
campaign has built some momentum.”
… “Braun
defends her place in race” – Headline from
this morning’s Des Moines Register. Excerpt
from coverage of Moseley Braun’s appearance at
Harkin-sponsored forum in Waterloo
by Lynn Okamoto: “Former U.S. Sen.
Carol Moseley Braun of Illinois on Sunday
defended her candidacy for president, saying
people have been telling her since 1978 that
she should not run for public office because
she can't win. Braun was elected to
the Illinois Legislature that year. Then in
1992, she was elected to the U.S. Senate,
becoming the first female senator from
Illinois and the nation's first female
African-American senator. ‘I may not look
like any president you've ever seen before,
but I have a platform and a plan to rebuild
America . . . that I hope will resonate with
the American people,’ Braun said at a
forum of about 80 people hosted by U.S. Sen.
Tom Harkin of Iowa. Sunday's forum was
held as a new poll by The Des Moines Register
showed that only 1 percent of Iowans likely
to participate in the Jan. 19 precinct
caucuses said Braun, 55, was their first
choice for president. Former Vermont Gov.
Howard Dean led the poll with 23
percent, while U.S. Rep. Dick Gephardt
of Missouri came second with 21 percent.
Braun, an attorney and former U.S. ambassador
to New Zealand, said she wasn't discouraged
that she was at the back of the pack of nine
vying for the 2004 Democratic nomination for
president. She said the other candidates
simply started to campaign earlier. ‘My
campaign is not that old,’ Braun said after
the forum. ‘Remember, all these guys
jumped the gun. When Bill Clinton ran, he
didn't really kick off his campaign until
October. I am as serious a candidate as there
is in this field. I'm going to win this
election, this primary.’ Braun
announced her candidacy in February and has
returned to campaign in Iowa three times since
then.”
… But
let’s see what the wannabes look like when
they head down the stretch – and after Iowa
and New Hampshire. Boston Herald headline:
“Bookmakers take action on prez-race
favorites” Excerpt from report in
yesterday’s Herald by Noelle Straub: “Move
over, Washington pundits - the Vegas
oddsmakers are making a move on presidential
politics. And while the bookmakers give
President Bush the early edge to win the 2004
race, they give Sen. John F. Kerry the best
odds of beating him. That's not the only
good news for Kerry. A real-money
political futures market, which has proved
more accurate than most polls in predicting
the last four White House races, has Kerry
trading at the highest price among Democratic
hopefuls. However, it also shows him trailing
Bush. Las Vegas has Bush's odds to win
re-election at 3-5. Kerry is second among
presidential wannabes, at 4-1. ‘Bush is a
solid favorite, no doubt about that,’ said
David Scott, a senior analyst for America's
Line, a Las Vegas-based company that
distributes odds to 130 newspapers across the
United States and Canada. ‘He has the
advantage of being one Republican against many
challengers. Once one Democrat is selected, it
will get closer, obviously.’ Despite his
recent surge in the race to become the
Democratic nominee, former Vermont Gov. Howard
Dean comes in at 10-1 to win the White House.
‘While Kerry and Dean are very
close in the New Hampshire poll, it's our view
that Kerry is far more electable than
Dean,’ Scott explained. ‘If Kerry
won (the nomination), he'd have a better
chance against Bush than Dean,
so his odds are much lower.’ Rep. Richard
Gephardt (Mo.) ranks fourth, at 12-1. Sens.
Joe Lieberman (Conn.), John Edwards (N.C.) and
Bob Graham (Fla.) all come in at 15-1. Al
Sharpton is last, at 1,000-1. America's
Line first put odds on the current race in
February 2001, a mere month after Bush's
inauguration. At the time, Bush was the
favorite at 2-1, former Vice President Al
Gore was second at 6-1, and Kerry
was 12-1. In 1997, Bush opened at 20-1 because
of the crowded Republican field, eventually
became the favorite, and on election night
2000 moved to a toss-up. Because betting on
political races is illegal in the United
States, the odds are for entertainment
purposes only, and several other Las Vegas
bookmakers said they don't have odds on the
race yet…Sports Interaction in Canada,
which accepts online bids on the 2004
election, also has Kerry as the favorite,
followed by Edwards, Lieberman and Dean.
U.K. oddsmaker William Hill favors the
Republican Party to win the 2004 race at 1-2,
which translates into a 67 percent chance of
winning. The bookmaker gives the Democratic
Party odds of 6-4, or a 40 percent chance.
Those in the United States who want a legal
alternative to betting can put their money in
the Iowa Electronic Market, an online futures
market run by the University of Iowa. Anyone
can open a trading account for up to $500 to
buy ‘shares’ of a political candidate, with
the payoff depending on the election results.
On Friday afternoon Kerry was trading at 31
cents in the Democratic National Convention
market, the highest of any of the Democrats
listed individually. Gephardt came in second
at 14 cents, Lieberman at 7 cents and Sen.
Hillary Clinton (N.Y.) at 6 cents. But ‘rest
of field’ - which includes Dean - topped them
all at 42 cents.”
… Dean, who is
making a practice of disrupting plans of other
wannabes, now has Kerry campaign divided over
whether to go on attack or just go with the
flow. Headline from Saturday’s Boston
Globe: “Kerry camp split on issue of Dean…
Tougher approach winning out, but some have
doubts” Excerpt from coverage by the
Globe’s Kerry-watcher. Glen Johnson: “Howard
Dean's strong fund-raising and recent rise in
public opinion polls have created a divide
within Senator John F. Kerry's presidential
campaign, between aides who want to attack the
former Vermont governor to stem the tide and
others who believe his wave of support will
crest on its own. The views of the more
aggressive group, represented by campaign
manager Jim Jordan, were reflected this week
when Kerry criticized any rival for the
Democratic nomination who favors repealing all
of the tax cuts enacted since President Bush
took office in 2001. At least three of the
nine candidates fit that billing, but aides
circulated the Massachusetts senator's
prepared text before a speech in Dover, N.H.,
and made it clear that Dean was the intended
target. ‘Real Democrats don't walk away
from the middle class,’ Kerry declared
Wednesday night. ‘They don't take away a tax
credit for families struggling to raise their
children or bring back a tax penalty for
married couples who are starting out or
penalize teachers and waitresses by raising
taxes on the middle class.’ A more reserved
group of advisers is typified by David McKean,
chief of staff in Kerry's Senate office. He
is among those who believe that Dean's current
political celebrity will fade with closer
media scrutiny; they foresee an inevitable
misstep for his campaign, and they argue that
engaging Dean only helps him. Both camps
are united in believing that Kerry has
built a strong campaign organization, and has
successfully husbanded resources for an
eventual showdown with Dean and the
other Democrats, according to interviews with
members of each group and other aides who
spoke on the condition of anonymity. The
senator is largely focused on executing a game
plan that calls for a mid-September public
declaration of his candidacy, a round of
policy speeches and endorsements aimed at
differentiating himself from his fellow
Democrats and President Bush, and his first
purchase of television time to air campaign
commercials in Iowa, New Hampshire, and other
early-voting states, several aides said.
Dean's political strength was evident
last month when he more than doubled his
support in a poll of likely voters in
California, the state with the most electoral
votes. He and Kerry were both in the
mid-teens, steady performance for Kerry
but an improvement of 8 percentage points for
Dean from a similar survey in April. At
the same time, Dean raised more than
any of his Democratic rivals during the second
three months of the year, taking in $7.6
million for the period ending June 30.
Kerry raised $5.9 million, which placed
him second for the second consecutive quarter,
but Dean's finish was a marked
improvement over the $2.6 million he raised
during the first three months of the year.
Dean's rise has prompted the internal debate
within the Kerry camp, but Jordan refused to
discuss it. ‘I have no comment whatsoever
on internal campaign conversations,’ he said
in an interview. Jordan professed respect for
Dean, saying, ‘He's a serious
candidate, as we suspected all along.’ One
campaign aide said Kerry's criticism on
Wednesday followed reports from Iowa that
Dean was planning to attack Kerry.
Throughout the week, though, Jordan displayed
the sharper tack in dealing with Dean.
One flashpoint was the governor's criticism
that Kerry and other Democrats in Congress did
not sufficiently question whether there were
weapons of mass destruction in Iraq before
approving a war resolution. ‘Governor Dean
is simply reinventing his own position and
that of others, and that's the rankest kind of
politics,’ Jordan told The New York Times.
‘He was an unemployed doctor with no
responsibilities, and it was easy to sit there
and take political potshots from the outside.’
The New York Post also quoted Jordan as saying
of Dean, ‘Ultimately, voters are going to
decide a small-town physician from a small and
atypical state is probably not qualified to
lead this nation in a dangerous world.’”
… “Poll is big uh-oh
for Gephardt” – Headline from yesterday’s
David Yepsen column in the Des Moines Sunday
Register analyzing the newspaper’s latest Iowa
Poll. Yepsen sees potential trouble for the
’88 caucus champ – but warns of the pitfalls
of the Dems’ 15% requirement. Column
excerpt: “Is Howard Dean on his way to
the Democratic presidential nomination? Could
be. Today's Iowa Poll of Democratic
caucus-goers shows the former Vermont governor
has moved into first place in Iowa, knocking
Missouri Congressman Richard Gephardt
from that long-held perch. That's more
great news for Dean, who's been enjoying a lot
of that lately, and another hard blow to
Gephardt, whose campaign seems flat. It's also
bad news for Massachusetts Senator John Kerry,
who is in third place. Not because he's
running third here, but because of what a
first-place Dean finish in Iowa is going to
mean to Kerry's chances in New Hampshire.
Consider the scenario this poll suggests:
Dean upsets Gephardt in Iowa.
That could knock Gephardt out of the race.
(He's already had trouble raising money, and
an Iowa defeat means a rejection by the very
people who elevated him to national stature in
1988.) A caucus victory in Iowa is always
worth a few points going into New Hampshire.
Since Kerry and Dean are in a virtual tie
in New Hampshire, an Iowa victory for Dean
could push him over the top in the Granite
State. Any candidate who wins both Iowa
and New Hampshire is going to be hard to stop
for the nomination. Which is why you can
look for all the other candidates to start
scuffing up Dean a little more. For now,
it's important to look at polls of the race in
Iowa against the backdrop of Iowa Democratic
Party rules. They require a candidate to
get 15 percent of the initial vote in a caucus
to be entitled to any delegates to the county
convention. Candidates with less than that are
declared ‘non-viable’ and their supporters
must shift to another candidate or get others
to join them to meet that 15 percent threshold
and win delegates. Based on this poll,
only two candidates - Dean and Gephardt - are
viable in Iowa. So is the uncommitted
group. Kerry is close. It then becomes
important to look at the poll's question of
‘Who is your second choice?’ to those
respondents whose candidate did not meet the
threshold. It's likely, for example, that Ohio
Congressman Dennis Kucinich's highly
motivated supporters won't have enough bodies
to reach that 15 percent threshold so
they'll have a tough choice on caucus night:
Where do we go now? (Most of Kucinich
supporters say Dean is their second choice,
so you can add a few more points to Dean's
total.) A fair number of people initially
backing other candidates list Dean as a
second choice like that. It's just another
similarity he has with Jimmy Carter's campaign
in 1976. Dean is also doing well
with those activists most definitely committed
to attend a caucus. Add those second-choice
votes and, well, it's all pretty impressive.
Given that 15 percent rule, look for Kerry
to start doing things that might help Gephardt
in Iowa. Kerry must slow Dean's momentum in
Iowa to stave off a disaster in New Hampshire.
If Kerry can't stop Dean by himself here,
maybe he can help Gephardt do it. Look for the
Kerry campaign to eventually tell its
supporters to caucus with Gephardt's
preference group if they can't become viable
on their own at a caucus.”
… “Economic fog:
Dem candidates are lost in the mist” –
Headline from an editorial in yesterday’s New
Hampshire Sunday News. After NH editorial
writers take on Dean, Kerry and Lieberman in
recent days, all the wannabes included
in Sunday’s indictment. Editorial
excerpts: “When it comes to the Democratic
debate on the economy during these early days
of August, one can truthfully say, it’s not
the heat, it’s the stupidity. Howard
Dean announced last week that he would get
the economy going again by raising the minimum
wage, raising taxes and raising government
spending. They must not have required
economics for pre-med majors back when Dean
was in college. Dick Gephardt is mad at
Dean because the Missouri congressman says
Dean stole part of his economic plan,
specifically the part in which Gephardt calls
for repealing the Bush tax cuts to pay for
universal health care. John Kerry is mad at
Dean for coming up with such a dumb economic
plan. A smart Democrat would repeal only
most of the Bush tax cuts, not all of them,
Kerry quips. Joe Lieberman says
the country’s high unemployment rate is all
Bush’s fault for not protecting manufacturing
jobs. But, he says, the protectionism is a bad
thing and the country ought not repeal NAFTA
or GATT. Huh? Good thing none of these
guys is electable.”
… “Dean
keeps critical focus on Bush in Salem speech”
– Headline from yesterday’s New Hampshire
Sunday News. Dean refers to Bush
educational initiative as “No Teacher Left
with a Behind.” Excerpt from Sunday News
report from Salem by correspondent Janine E.
Gilbertson: “Dozens of local residents
crammed into the tiny American Legion Hall on
Millville Street yesterday to meet
Presidential hopeful Howard Dean.
So packed was the hall that some had to stand
outside in the wet grass and listen to the
candidate’s speech broadcast over a speaker.
Dean, a physician and former Vermont
governor, spoke for about 30 minutes, touching
on topics such as his criticism of the war in
Iraq, the need for healthcare for the nation’s
uninsured and the need to make America less
dependent on oil. ‘I would never send U.S.
troops abroad without telling them the truth,’
Dean said, blasting the Bush
administration. He spoke of the need to
further internationalize the American and
British occupation of Iraq and said help is
needed in that country from all the other
countries we insulted on our way into the war.
Dean also touched on the need for
the country to improve its international
reputation with rumors swirling around
Washington that the war in Iraq was based on
lies. ‘Our power is not based on military
strength,’ Dean said. ‘That kind of
rule is based on fear. In two and a half
years, the current President has taken our
good reputation away. We need to start
cooperating with other countries. We need to
stop saying play my way or I’ll see you on the
playground after school. We should have higher
expectations.’ Many in attendance
applauded during Dean’s remarks,
including one woman who cheered his criticism
of Bush’s ‘No Child Left Behind’ initiative
and bellowed ‘yuck’ when the initiative was
mentioned. Dean referred to the initiative
as ‘No School Board Left Standing’ and also
nicknamed it ‘No Teacher Left with a Behind,’
which drew laughs from the audience standing
in the hot hall.”
… Edwards
– with a February strategy – concedes he took
a calculated risk by raising money first, but
now anticipates airing first TV ads in Iowa
and New Hampshire. Headline from
yesterday’s Washington Post: “For Edwards,
Time to Play Catch-Up…Democratic
Candidate’s Rush to Raise Money Left Him
Campaigning from Behind” Excerpt from report –
datelined Nashua, NH -- by the Post’s Jim
VandeHei: “Sen. John Edwards (N.C.),
after raising more money than all but one of
his eight rivals for the Democratic
presidential nomination, is struggling to turn
money into momentum on the crowded campaign
trail. Edwards's gamble to raise money
first, campaign later has left him far behind
the front-runners in recent polls conducted
here and in Iowa, the first two key testing
grounds in the Democratic primary.
Nationally, the first-term senator barely
shows a pulse in surveys so far dominated by
seasoned veterans such as Sen. Joseph I.
Lieberman (Conn.) and the antiwar,
e-campaign of former Vermont governor Howard
Dean. At town hall meetings here last
week, Edwards sounded like a candidate
playing catch-up -- yet one confident he can
make a late break because so many voters
remain uncommitted. ‘I spent the first six
months of this year, a huge part of my time,
raising money,’ he told a small group of
Democrats at a town hall-style gathering in
the woods of Greeley Park here last weekend.
‘Now my job is to make sure voters see me and
hear me and know what I am about.’ Because
he is the neophyte among the contenders, with
only four years of experience as a senator,
Edwards made a calculated risk to essentially
go underground for the first six months of
this year to prove his viability by raising
presidential-caliber money. Edwards
passed that test with flying colors: He raised
more money than any other Democrat in the
first three months and now has more cash to
spend than everyone save Sen. John F. Kerry
(Mass.), $8.1 million. Much of it came from
fellow trial lawyers, but at this point in the
contest, money is money, Democrats say. At
the same time, though, he seemed to fade and
allow the campaigns of Kerry, Dean and Rep.
Richard A. Gephardt (Mo.) in particular to
take root here and in Iowa and sprout large
networks of supporters. The result: During
recent interviews with dozens of voters in
Iowa, few knew much if anything about
Edwards, and none listed him as a top-tier
candidate. Many of the most active Democrats
have signed up to help other campaigns. In a
primary that has more well-funded participants
and is starting earlier than most in history,
it is unclear how badly Edwards has hurt
himself -- if at all -- by making a belated
bid for the two earliest prizes. Polls
show many Democrats are undecided on a
candidate, and no one has emerged as a clear
front-runner, which strategists say bodes well
for Edwards…He is planning to dip
into his campaign bank soon to fund his first
ads in Iowa and, perhaps, New Hampshire.
With his good looks and a warm courtroom
presence, Edwards, 50, comes across
better than most candidates on television,
according to Democratic strategists. This
could provide Edwards a much-needed lift in
the dog days of summer. At the least, it
will give many Democrats their first look at
the candidate… Edwards's advisers talk of a
gradual rise up starting now and with high
hopes of peaking later this year, when more
voters start paying attention. In an
interview, Edwards said that by the
time voters make up their minds, ‘they will be
looking for character, looking for vision and
looking for person with solutions,’ which he
thinks he provides. The Edwards campaign
does not necessarily expect to win either Iowa
or New Hampshire in January, but it hopes to
place high enough to stay alive into February.
At that point, the contest moves quickly to
the South, to places such as South Carolina
and Oklahoma and out West, where Edwards's
emerging brand of southern centrism is an
easier sell. While most successful
campaigns of recent history relied on top
three showings in Iowa and New Hampshire to
build momentum, Edwards and Lieberman are
banking on big momentum swings during the
first seven days of February, when nine states
hold their primaries. Edwards sees South
Carolina, where he was born, as a must-win and
is spending considerable time and money in
Arizona and other states getting less
attention now from the major candidates.
Those states are ‘enormously important,’ he
said. Edwards is trying to position himself as
the centrist in the field, with a heavy
emphasis on the personal and fiscal
responsibility themes popularized by Clinton
in 1992 and 1996. ‘Edwards's campaign is
certainly going in a direction we'd like to
see the party go,’ said Al From of the
Democratic Leadership Council.”
… In 2004,
Soccer Moms expected to lose out to NASCAR
Dads. Wannabes – and the NRA – seek to
identify with voters through racing
connections. Weekend headline from the
Washington Post: “In Sun Belt, Politicians
Vie for NASCAR Dads” Coverage – excerpts –
from the Post’s Liz Clarke: “In 2000, it
was soccer moms. Today, the demographic that's
most in demand by political strategists
converges at racetracks Sunday afternoons to
whoop, holler and shake a fist at the souped-up
Fords and Chevys whizzing past. They're called
‘NASCAR dads.’…’ They are middle- to lower
middle-class males who are family men, live in
rural areas, used to vote heavily Democratic
but now usually vote Republican,’ explains
Larry J. Sabato, director of the University of
Virginia's Center for Politics. ‘That's the
definition of a NASCAR dad, and there are a
lot of them.’ And the National Rifle
Association, as well as Senator Bob Graham (D-Fla.),
are staking considerable sums on the belief
that if NASCAR can sell its fans on Pennzoil
motor oil and Budweiser beer, why not the
Second Amendment and the next president of the
United States? The NRA, whose billboards now
adorn a half-dozen NASCAR speedways, sees
stock-car racing as a means of bypassing the
mainstream media and appealing directly to the
Americans who support its agenda. Graham,
whose presidential campaign fields the ‘Bob
Graham for President’ NASCAR truck, sees
auto racing as a way of forging a connection
with rural voters by tapping into the passion
they feel for American-made cars and the
hardscrabble racers behind the wheel…Once
confined to the rural Southeast, NASCAR has
exploded in popularity over the past decade,
drawing race-day crowds of more than 100,000
in such markets as Miami, Boston, Chicago and
Los Angeles. And its 75 million fans are
uncommonly loyal to the companies that sponsor
the cars and drivers they love. It's that
passion that makes NASCAR so compelling to
advertisers, says John Miller, director of
business development for Roush Racing, who
negotiated the ‘Graham for President’
truck deal…In its first two races, the
‘Graham for President’ truck got an estimated
$223,000 worth of TV exposure. Winning its
inaugural event at Kansas City helped boost
that figure, with TV cameras lingering on the
Graham logo throughout the celebration
in Victory Lane. The NRA's trackside
billboards have reaped more than $1.3 million
worth of exposure so far this season…Sabato
[offered] a quick rundown of Democratic
hopefuls [NASCAR potential]. Senator John
Edwards (D-N.C.) ‘could pull it off,’ Sabato
says. Former Vermont governor Howard ‘Dean --
I don't even think NASCAR fans know who he is.
And Hillary Clinton would be booed, no
question about it.’”
… Headline
on news analysis in the San Francisco
Chronicle: “Iraq war splits Democrats seeking
to replace Bush… Most candidates support some
level of U.N. involvement” Lieberman leading
the attack on Dean. Excerpt from analysis
by Robert Collier in Friday’s Chronicle: “As
the death toll in Iraq grows, the war is
coming home and sparking debate among
Democratic presidential contenders. The
debate heated up this week, with Sen. Joe
Lieberman of Connecticut leading the attack on
former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, who has
ridden his anti- war position up a steep climb
in the polls. In a speech Monday, Lieberman
emphasized his support for the war and
criticized Dean for being soft on terrorism.
‘By their words, some in my party threaten to
send a message that they don't know a just war
when they see it, and more broadly, are not
prepared to use our military strength to
protect our security and the cause of
freedom,’ Lieberman said. The rush of
American casualties is shifting the focus of
debate from discredited intelligence about
Iraq's alleged weapons of mass destruction to
the burning question: ‘How do we stop the
bloodshed?’ For many Democratic
contenders, the central question is whether
the United States should go back to the U.N.
Security Council for a mandate that would
allow other countries to contribute money and
troops. No Democrat has advocated a pullout of
U.S. troops. Even Dean, who strongly
opposed the war before it started in March,
favors sending more American troops to Iraq to
stabilize the situation there. But he has
been the most vocal advocate of a greater role
for the United Nations in policing and
rebuilding Iraq. On April 9, the day Baghdad
fell to American troops, Dean proposed
that the Americans hand over full control of
Iraq's political process to an international
body approved by the United Nations and seek a
U.N. mandate to allow NATO troops to enter
Iraq. In recent days, fellow front-runners
Rep. Dick Gephardt of Missouri and Sen. John
Kerry of Massachusetts also have backed a
greater U.N. role, though they have taken a
more cautious tack. Both have suggested that
Bush seek U.N. approval for NATO to intervene
but have avoided any suggestion that the world
body be given real authority over Iraqi
political affairs. ‘If I were president,
I'd ask NATO to join with us immediately to
secure peace and stability in postwar Iraq,’
Gephardt said in a speech in San
Francisco last week. ‘And I'd go to the U.N.
right now and ask for a Security Council
mandate so countries like India and Russia and
France and Germany will join us.’ Kerry
argued that U.N. help is crucial. ‘Lives are
at stake,’ he said last week. ‘We need to
internationalize this, and we need to do it
now.’ Lieberman has suggested that Bush
ask American allies to contribute troops to
the postwar force in Iraq but has pointedly
avoided mentioning the United Nations. “
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