IPW Daily Report, Wednesday, Jan. 28, 2004

* QUOTABLE:

“I love New Hampshire! And I love Iowa, too!” John Kerry said.

"Now this campaign goes on to places all over this country, and I ask Democrats everywhere to join us so that we can defeat George W. Bush and the economy of privilege," John Kerry said.

I have spent my whole life fighting against powerful interests — and I've only just begun to fight," John Kerry said

"People know that we're going to stand up for them. This really is a campaign to stand up for ordinary Americans," Howard Dean said. "We got some momentum back in the campaign, but it's going to take a long time to get back the momentum we had as front-runner status."

"We'll see if John Kerry can take the number of body blows that Howard Dean did and still be standing," Dean spokeswoman Tricia Enright said.

"I think the only way we're going to beat George Bush is for someone to come from outside Washington," Dean said.

"We really are going to win this nomination, aren't we?" Dean said. "The people of New Hampshire have allowed our campaign to regain its momentum, and I am very grateful. The people of New Hampshire have allowed all of you to hope again that we're going to have real change in America."

"We'll be leaving New Hampshire tonight a smarter, better, stronger and even more determined candidate," Wesley Clark said. "Never underestimate what a determined soldier can accomplish when he's fighting for his country."

“The quicker we can get this party unified with one message, to have our messenger out there every day, allow myself and the party to raise the money, coalesce around a candidate, the better off we are," Terry McAuliffe, chairman of the Democratic National Committee,e said.

"At some point ... you just run out of money and you can't get your campaign plane in the air, you can't pay for your advertising, you can't pay for your staff," said Terry McAuliffe.

"It's good for the Democratic Party that the South matters early in the process," Mr. Erwin said. "Too often the entire South has been late to the dance," said Joe Erwin, the state Democratic Party chairman in South Carolina.

Kerry ran best among voters who put the highest priority on leadership and political experience. Dean defeated Kerry among voters who placed the highest priority on a candidate who would offer new ideas and bring about the greatest change.  -- writes Ronald Brownstein of the LA Times.

The last two Democrats to sweep Iowa and New Hampshire in contested races were Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Al Gore in 2000 -- and both went on to win the nomination. -- writes David S. Broder of the Washington Post.

Retired Gen. Wesley Clark's prospects went south after his disastrous debate performance last Thursday, and he looks like a loser after finishing near the middle here. -- writes Robert Novak.

The chair has lost control of the floor and delegates are snaking through the aisles, shouting, "We Want Hillary!" All deals are off; we have the politicians' nightmare and the pundits' dream — an open convention! -- writes NY Times columnist William Safire.

* TODAY’S OFFERINGS:

IPW Analysis:

*Money and organization

*Kerry & Dean in the Battle of the States

*Lieberman – is it over?

*Clark still standing

*Edwards says no VP

*Kerry – what now?

Just Politics:

*Kay and WMDs

*Hey, Bill!

*Republican suspended

*MoveOn.org protest

*Bad form, ol’ boy

* CANDIDATES & CAUCUSES:

IPW Analysis

Money and organization

It is all about money and organization now. Candidates will hardly be able to get to states holding elections and caucuses more than twice. The question is, who can play in all of the states? And it looks like the answer is, Howard Dean will. How many states and how much money Sen. John Kerry can pony up will be a big challenge.

Spending the money can be a problem.

For example if you wanted to put together three new TV ads -- one each for the Midwest, South, and another for the Southwest -- it would require going to these states with the candidate, putting together the taping crew, editing the tapes, copying, shipping to the stations, paying in advance and signing the forms. It is about money and organization.

The following states are up next Tuesday:

Feb. 3, 2004: Delaware presidential primary

Feb. 3, 2004: South Carolina Democratic presidential primary

Feb. 3, 2004: Missouri presidential primary

Feb. 3, 2004: Arizona presidential primary

Feb. 3, 2004: New Mexico Democratic caucuses

Feb. 3, 2004: Virginia GOP caucuses

Feb. 3, 2004: Oklahoma presidential primary

Feb. 3, 2004: North Dakota Democratic caucuses

There was discussion in the Dean camp about not fighting the war on all fronts. Advisers urged Dean to concentrate on a few states to conserve resources. But he vetoed the strategy, insisting his campaign is muscular enough to compete nationally according to the Associated Press:

In an interview with the Associated Press, Dean acknowledged that aides urged him to skip South Carolina. "There was some discussion about it," he said. "I never gave it any thought."

Dean raised more than $200,000 in the 24 hours before the primary, but has been spending money just as fast — and he will keep up the pricey pace with his new strategy.

Kerry & Dean in the Battle of the States

Kerry is going to Missouri first and John Norris, who ran Iowa next door, is heading there on Kerry’s behalf as well. Kerry has also picked up good Gephardt people in Missouri. He needs to win Missouri to keep his string going and delegate-rich Missouri is a prize worth winning.

Dean will fall back on his union support from AFSME and SEUI in Missouri. There were hard feelings between Gephardt staff and those unions before. Missouri will be a very interesting battleground on Feb. 3. Aides to Mr. Gephardt said on Monday that he would not endorse anyone before the contest there.

Kerry will receive the benefit of being the double winner and money should come in. He will also receive more press attention than the other candidates in the upcoming states because of his wins.

A state to watch is Oklahoma, where Rep. Dick Gephardt had run up a large number of endorsements from union members and party faithful. If these previous Gephardt supporters start going in mass to Kerry in Oklahoma, Dean will have a hard time putting up the firewall.

Dean, it seems, is interested in visiting Michigan, Washington and Wisconsin. He may be at $5 million in the bank at this point. Will those Deanies throw their plastic credit cards at the cyber-bat and keep Dean alive? How long will it take for the Deanies to pay off this credit card financed campaign? Will they provide the increasing millions of dollars to rollover the Democrat establishment and win the nomination? How bloody will this get? Will Dean get a million contributors at $100 each?

It could get very bloody, according to the Washington Post:

But House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) said it will probably be another month before the nomination is certain. "Kerry has been impressive," she said, "but we have to see how this plays out in the rest of the country."

The LA Times reports:

Dean's failure to win the primary is ominous for his presidential hopes. New Hampshire has among the country's greatest concentrations of highly educated, socially liberal voters, the group that had been most attracted to his candidacy.

More than 60 % of Tuesday's voters held at least a four-year college degree; the share of college graduates casting ballots in South Carolina, Missouri and Oklahoma — some of the key contests next Tuesday — is likely to be much smaller.

Dean did best only among voters who described themselves as "very liberal," while Kerry carried moderates, liberals and conservatives.

Lieberman – is it over?

Sen. Joe Lieberman’s campaign ended yesterday. The candidate was informed of the death by his staff, but he doesn’t seem to want to take in the reality just yet.

There’s more and more talk that Lieberman is the ‘very lonely Democrat’ that Wesley Clark claimed to be in the Republican Party. Lieberman’s, “there was too a middle class tax cut” positions seem more favorable to the Republicans all the time. Maybe, he should join his friend John McCain on the other side of the aisle.

"I'm not sure he'll be able to raise 10 cents after this poor, fifth-place showing," said Charles Cook, an independent Washington elections analyst. "One more good week and this nomination will belong to Kerry."

Clark still standing

Wesley Clark lives to fight another day. It looks like he will come in just ahead of Edwards by over 800 votes in New Hampshire. He took off for - I bet you thought S. Carolina – no, Oklahoma and Arizona. Edwards started his “Bringing it Home” South Carolina tour at South Carolina State University in Orangeburg, S.C. this morning. Clark is vulnerable if he doesn’t get close to Edwards in South Carolina. He better do well in Virginia, too. Clark says that he is going to run a better campaign.

"Four months ago, we weren't even in this race. We had no money. We had no office. All we had was hope and a vision for a better America," Clark said. "We came into New Hampshire as one of the Elite Eight. We leave tonight as one of the Final Four.”

Clark is putting up a fight in South Carolina Arizona, New Mexico, Oklahoma and North Dakota. What about Virginia? And how you have Southern appeal, General?

Edwards says no VP

Clark is not the only one who knows how to reject a suitor’s offer of second place. Edwards was asked on NBC’s Today Show about taking the number two spot behind Kerry. His reply was, "No, no. Final. I don't want to be vice president. I'm running for president."

"We've got a lot of energy and momentum going right now. My job is to keep it going," Edwards said.

How big can he win in South Carolina will be the question. Can he come out ahead in Virginia and third in another state? Watch Edwards in Oklahoma. That would be about all his money allows, and keep him alive for another round. South Carolina will probably take out Clark unless he wins a state. Then it is only one Southerner standing. Tell us once again how those Southern states don’t count, Kerry -- how much money will you spend?

Edwards is running TV ads in South Carolina, Oklahoma and New Mexico. Edwards said contributions continued to flow into his campaign based on his Iowa finish. Look for these contributions to slow and financial reliance come from the South.

Kerry -- what now?

South Carolina Rep. Jim Clyburn and Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack intend to endorse Kerry, officials said Wednesday -- a coup for the Democratic presidential front-runner. Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack’s wife previously endorsed Kerry in the Iowa Caucuses. This puts Vilsack at odds with Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin, who endorsed Dean. Harkin is the one who warmed up the crowd prior to the Dean I have a Scream speech -- the same thing he did at Senator Paul Wellstone’s funeral. Gov. Vilsack is traveling to neighboring Missouri to make the his Kerry endorsement.

An AP analysis of the delegate count shows Kerry winning 13 delegates and Dean capturing nine. The others fell under the 15 percent threshold for claiming delegates.

Kerry is competing in all seven-state contests on Feb. 3 (including tiny North Dakota), where 269 delegates to the Democratic convention are at stake. That represents 12 percent of the delegates needed to claim the nomination. Kerry's bought television ad time in all seven states.

Watch for how Kerry deals with his Congressional record as a front-runner. The Washington Post reports:

Kerry said he would use his candidacy to challenge Bush and the "influence peddlers, the polluters, the HMOs" and other corporations that he said had special access to the White House. "We're coming," he said. "You're going. And don't let the door hit you on the way out."

* ON THE BUSH BEAT:

Weapons of Mass Destruction

David Kay is testifying and President Bush continues to be questioned about WMDs:

When asked Tuesday by reporters about Kay's assertions, Bush didn't say that the banned weapons would eventually be discovered: "We know from years of intelligence — not only our own intelligence services, but other intelligence gathering organizations — that he had weapons — after all, he used them."

* THE CLINTON COMEDIES:

Hey, Bill!

The Washington Times reports:

Democratic presidential candidate Howard Dean says he would appoint Bill Clinton to negotiate a peace agreement between the Palestinians and Israelis.

"If I were president tomorrow, the first thing I would do is pick up the phone and call the only person who has had any kind of success in bringing the Palestinians and the Israelis together in the last 25 years I'd call Bill Clinton and ask him to represent me in the peace process," Mr. Dean told the audience in a packed auditorium at Phillips Exeter Academy in New Hampshire, Agence France-Presse reports.

* NATIONAL:

Republican suspended

The Associated Press reports that a Republican aide to Sen. Bill Frist has been put on leave:

An aide to Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist has been put on leave during an investigation into how Republicans gained access to Democratic memos concerning opposition to President Bush's judicial nominees.

Manuel Miranda, who works for the Tennessee Republican on judicial nominations, is on leave pending the outcome of the inquiry by the Senate sergeant-at-arms, Frist spokesman Nick Smith said yesterday. In the matter under investigation, Democratic memos stored on a computer server shared by Judiciary Committee members ended up in Republican hands.

MoveOn.org protest

MoveOn.org is protesting Corporate CBS’s refusal to let their Bush bashing ad on the Super Bowl. They have a problem of people calling CBS News to complain. It seems they do not want the bad effects to go there:

Dear friend of MoveOn,

Our CBS campaign continues to gain momentum: thousands of calls were made to CBS yesterday, and over 400,000 emails have been written.

Some of these calls have been reaching CBS News, which is not our intended target. CBS News doesn't have any say in the decision not to run our ad, so we don't want to interfere with their operation. Please make sure that you call the switchboard for CBS Corporate, which you can reach at: (212) 975-4321

Bad form, Ol’ Boy

The Washington Times reports that the Chief Justice Rehnquist dismissed Senators asking that Justice Scalia recuse himself:

Chief Justice William H. Rehnquist has rejected a request from two Democratic senators that Justice Antonin Scalia recuse himself from a case involving Vice President Dick Cheney.

The reply was released by the U.S. Supreme Court on Monday.

Justice Scalia went on a hunting trip with Mr. Cheney only a month after the Supreme Court agreed to hear a case on whether an energy task force headed by Mr. Cheney should be forced to list the names of those it consulted.

Sen. Patrick J. Leahy, Vermont Democrat and ranking member of the Judiciary Committee, and Sen. Joe Lieberman, Connecticut Democrat and a presidential contender, sent Chief Justice Rehnquist a letter suggesting that it would be improper for Justice Scalia to participate in the Cheney case.

In letters to both senators, Chief Justice Rehnquist crisply denied a conflict, United Press International reports.

"I think that any suggestion by or Senator Leahy as to why a justice should recuse himself in a pending case is ill-considered," the letter said.

 

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