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Iowa 2004 presidential primary precinct caucus and caucuses news">
Iowa 2004 presidential primary precinct caucus and caucuses news, reports
and information on 2004 Democrat and Republican candidates, campaigns
and issues Iowa
Presidential Watch's
IOWA DAILY REPORT
* QUOTABLE:
We did not charge hundreds of miles into the heart
of Iraq, pay a bitter cost of casualties, defeat a
ruthless dictator and liberate 25 million people
only to retreat before a band of thugs and
assassins,"
President Bush told about 600 soldiers in Baghdad.
"The general consensus this fall is that there are
too many [Democratic presidential] candidates and
too many debates, and that they sound about as
spontaneous as a George Foreman infomercial,"
Matt Bai writes
in the New York Times Magazine.
"[Bush is] not going to wobble; whatever the
price, he's going to pay. This is a very
determined guy who can see through to the fruits
of his vision. This is a man with a very clear
vision. He reaffirmed his commitment in no
uncertain terms that Iraq is his prime concern,
and he's going to see through democracy in Iraq,
and it's going to be a model for the region,"
said Mowaffak
Rubaie, a Shiite physician and former exile in
Britain after meeting Bush in Baghdad.
"In the long run, Iraq will be determined by the
Iraqis and the security situation,"
said Geoffrey
Kemp, who was the National Security Council staff
director for the Middle East in the Reagan
administration.
James Steinberg,
deputy national security adviser in the Clinton
administration, said: "It's an admirable
and the right thing to do, but it won't change the
reality on the ground one way or the other."
"The president of the United States is AWOL, and
we're with him. The ultimate road trip,"
said Richard
Keil, a 6-foot-5 reporter for Bloomberg News whom
Bush calls "Stretch."
"Just because people have opted in doesn't mean
they won't blow the caps,"
Dr. Dean's
campaign manager, Joe Trippi, said about the state
spending limits and the fact that Dick Gephardt
went beyond them in 1988. "They've done it
in the past."
"If we do not fight the war against terror in
places like Baghdad and Kabul, we are more likely
to have it fought in places like Boston and
Kansas," said Ed
Gillespie, chairman Republican National Committee.
San Francisco State University professor Joseph
Tuman said that Dean has to move his image from
that of "a George McGovern angry man to a Bill
Clinton thinking man."
* TODAY’S
OFFERINGS:
Praise and criticism
Money can’t buy me love
Anger trumping hope
All in the family
My surrogate is better than your surrogate
What TV ads tell us
Why the trip?
Foreign Policy vs. campaign
Overshadowed
Steel tariffs
* CANDIDATES &
CAUCUSES: The following are quotes from
the Democrat candidates concerning Bush’s visit to
Baghdad as reported in the
NY Times:
“It's nice that he made it over there today, but
this visit won't change the fact that those brave
men and women should never have been fighting in
Iraq in the first place," said Jay Carson, a
spokesman for Howard Dean.
“The right thing to do for our country. When
Thanksgiving is over, I hope the president will
take the time to correct his failed policy in Iraq
that has placed our soldiers in a shooting
gallery," said John Kerry.
"Daring move and great politics. I think these
kids need more. I'm sure they were buoyed by his
coming, but they need more," commented a spokesman
for John Edwards.
Matt Bennett, the communications director for Gen.
Wesley K. Clark, said: "We're not going to throw
stones at the guy for trying to do a nice thing
for the troops. When the president goes and spends
time with the troops, that's a good thing." … They
made their bed with that `Mission Accomplished'
trip, and that's going to be around for a long
time," he said. "That's not the last ad you will
see with that. I will guarantee you that whoever
the nominee is will have that image up."
Jano Cabrera, a spokesman for Senator Joseph I.
Lieberman of Connecticut, said: "In fairness,
visiting with the troops is exactly what a
commander in chief should do. That said, we hope
that he's also reassuring them that the
administration will eventually have a plan to win
the peace and bring our troops home soon." While it is said that money
can’t buy love, the unlimited spending in two
small states may decide who the next Democrat
nominee for President is. A New York Times story
explores what it will mean for Sen. John Kerry and
Howard Dean as they blow through the spending
limitations in New Hampshire and Iowa:
Aides to Mr. Kerry and Dr. Dean said the exact
amount spent in Iowa and New Hampshire would be
based on how much they raised before the end of
the year, what their standing is in polls a month
from now, and, in Mr. Kerry's case, how much of
his own money he ultimately invests in his
campaign, or raises by borrowing against his
assets. Candidates opting into the
Federal Election Commissions matching funds
program are limited to spending $45 million this
primary cycle. In addition there are state
spending limits of $1.3 million in Iowa and
$730,000 in New Hampshire. There are minor ways to
get around those limits, like making staff spend
the night in neighboring states hotel rooms,
flying into adjacent states and renting cars, etc…
Wesley Clark and other opponents
have asked Dean and Kerry to abide by these
spending limits so that they can compete fairly
with the two opting out. Dean has stated that he
opted out to be able to compete with President
Bush. Dean has left little doubt that he was
prepared to break the limits. Kerry, whom it is
believed will use his own money, opted out because
of Dean. Kerry has said he would abide by the
overall $45 million limit, but has not pledged to
abide by the state-by-state limits. The latest expenditure
percentages are for the end of September. Dean had
spent 18 percent of the Iowa limit and 17 percent
of the New Hampshire limit. Kerry had spent 27
percent of the Iowa limit and 33 percent of the
New Hampshire limit. Gephardt had spent 27 percent
of his spending limit in Iowa. Edwards had spent
33 percent of the allowable amount in Iowa and 40
percent in New Hampshire The Times article points out
that staying inside the limits is not always
complied with:
Mr. Gephardt overshot the 1988 state limit by
about $457,500, or about 60 percent, allowing him
to sweep to victory in Iowa. Four years later, his
campaign agreed to repay almost $119,000 of his
federal campaign subsidies, and three years later
he paid a civil penalty of about $80,000 for that
and other violations, according to the Federal
Election Commission. Gephardt is probably in the best
situation concerning limitations than his rivals
due to his making his stand in Iowa -- if he only
puts up a token fight in New Hampshire after Iowa
and moves on to the Feb. 3 round. This is because
TV ads in Iowa are a lot cheaper than in New
Hampshire. In addition, Iowa caucuses are more of
an organizational battle versus New Hampshire’s
open primary process that relies on expensive TV
ads. The place where the spending cap
campaigns are most vulnerable is from Kerry and
Dean’s direct mail blitzes, sure to be utilized
greatly with their unlimited spending status. The
NY Times covers the advantage in their story:
And aides to Dr. Dean and Mr. Kerry said they
would flood Iowa and New Hampshire with mail in
the final weeks of the campaign, a crucial
advantage because mailing costs in the final 28
days of a campaign, when voters are presumably
paying the most attention to the race, are counted
against the spending limit. In Iowa in particular,
late mail has historically proved to be a damaging
means of attack.
"You can do it below the radar screen," Mr.
Hildebrand said. Steve Hildebrand is a Democratic
strategist who ran Al Gore's winning campaign in
the Iowa caucuses in 2000. An
LA Times story covers the conflict in Howard
Dean’s campaign -- and probably himself -- on his
two prong approach. The first approach is to tap
into the anger Democrats have for Bush. The second
approach is to offer hope of a better tomorrow:
"They still don't understand," he [Dean] said of
his critics in a recent interview. "What we're
really tapping into is the desire for hope again."
But the fact that Dean is better known for his
pugilistic side speaks to the challenge of
balancing anger and hopefulness in a political
campaign — especially for a candidate who is
naturally pugnacious. On the campaign trail,
Dean's passion often sounds a lot like ire. He can
often be found with his shirt-sleeves rolled up,
pumping his fists into the air as his voice rises
to a shout. In debates with his opponents, the
former governor often seems defensive and annoyed. Dean’s angry approach is well
documented and the fact is the may prefer that
side of the campaign as the portrayal of Dean
indicates:
"This is the next American revolution, where we
cast out the money-changers from the temple, where
we tell the Pharisees to go back to where they
came from," a red-faced Dean told several hundred
cheering twenty-somethings assembled at a bar in
Washington, D.C., recently for a fund-raiser. Most agree his softer side is
just not coming out and he needs to polish it up:
San Francisco State University professor Joseph
Tuman said that Dean has to move his image from
that of "a George McGovern angry man to a Bill
Clinton thinking man."
"I think if he stays with his old rhetoric, he
risks the perception that he is not electable,"
said Tuman, who studies political communication.
"His bluntness, while attractive to people who
feel disempowered, frankly is a little
unattractive to people who feel he lacks some
genteel quality." A Manchester
Union Leader story covers how former liberal
Vermont legislators who used to be at loggerheads
with then Gov. Howard Dean are now supporting
Dean:
Dick McCormack, a self-described liberal Democrat
and former state senator, said: "I look at the
economy struggling in this country, and here's
little Vermont riding out the storm. He should get
a lot of credit for that."
"Frankly, I do have some reservations," he said.
"He does have a temper. He tends to see
disagreements on issues as personal disloyalty. I
will vote for him in a minute, and while I am
doing it, I will be thinking of every time we
argued, and how I still think I was right." A
Boston Globe story covers the use of
surrogates in the Presidential campaigns:
They have been increasingly visible on the
campaign trail, playing the roles of cheerleader,
humanizer, celebrity spokesperson -- or pit bull.
Among Kerry's three-dozen regular surrogates are
several fellow Vietnam veterans who hail his
credentials as a wartime leader on a swift boat.
Dean, meanwhile, is tapping some former governors
to tout his executive experience (as the only
candidate who once led a state), as well as some
liberal congressmen to fire up Democratic
activists. Senators Joseph I. Lieberman and John
Edwards and Representative Richard A. Gephardt
frequently dispatch their wives to speak for them;
Lieberman also has a sister in Oklahoma who
sometimes campaigns there, where he strongly hopes
to win the Feb. 3 primary. The New Republic covers the fact
that the accelerated crush of primaries will mean
that TV ads will be the method through which most
voters learn about the individual candidates. The
article also points out that current TV ads show
us a preview of what is to come. Ryan Lizza writes
in the New Republic:
"The most telling new ad is Howard Dean's attack
on Dick Gephardt in Iowa. It opens with footage of
the congressman standing alongside Trent Lott and
George W. Bush at a Rose Garden signing ceremony.
The announcer intones, 'October 2002. Dick
Gephardt agrees to co-author the Iraq war
resolution, giving George Bush the authority to go
to war.' An ad like this clarifies a couple of
things. First, Dean sees Gephardt as his biggest
obstacle to winning the nomination. Dean's
strategy in Iowa is to spend Gephardt into
oblivion. Dean is running a national campaign with
a large war chest and, because he is rejecting
federal matching funds, no state spending caps.
Gephardt is basically running a single-state
campaign with few resources and within the limits
of the state spending caps. Even if Gephardt wins
Iowa, Dean is trying to ensure that he is
virtually penniless on his way to New Hampshire.
"The second thing Dean's ad clarifies is that, his
frequent protestations notwithstanding, he still
sees his opposition to the Iraq war as his most
powerful weapon in the primaries. At various
points in the campaign, Dean has argued that his
message is about more than being antiwar and
anti-Bush. In an interview back in March, Dean
told me he was leaving behind the war as an issue
to refocus his campaign on health insurance. It
never happened. Every time Dean is challenged, he
returns to his magical formula of attacking the
war and the Democrats who authorized Bush to wage
it."
* ON THE BUSH
BEAT: President Bush offered
explanations as to why he went to Baghdad for
Thanksgiving Dinner:
"It's got to be a lonely moment for them," Bush
said. "I thought it was important to send that
message that we care for them (the troops) and we
support them strongly, that we erase any doubts in
their minds as to whether or not the people stand
with them. ... Having seen the reaction of those
troops, you know it was the right thing to do."
Bush said the soldiers "needed to see me." He
added: "They don't get to see me all the time.
Sometimes, you know, they read things, and they
got to see me, and they saw my determination and
my support and respect for what they're doing."
A
NY Times story covers the concerns of Bush’s
foreign policy team over the Republican National
Committee’s terrorism ad that ran in Iowa and
scheduled to run before the Democrat debate in New
Hampshire:
After spending months trying to recast President
Bush as a man devoted to building international
coalitions rather than the gun-slinging cowboy of
European political cartoons, Mr. Bush's foreign
policy team was stunned by the Republican National
Committee's new advertising campaign. The spot
hailed the president as a man who pre-empts first
and asks questions later. The problem for the
administration is the historic conflict between a
campaign and governing. Campaigns require simple
communicative points and governing requires going
through literally thousands of pages of a bill or
trade agreement. So while Bush’s foreign policy
team has been selling the image of cooperation and
that pre-emption is the last option, meanwhile,
the campaign is emphasizing that the Democrats
want to leave our fate to others or to after the
attack has already happened. The Times relates the
problem:
In fact, what both the White House and the
Republican National Committee wandered into was
the gulf between George Bush the president and
George Bush the candidate for re-election. Just
shy of 12 months from Election Day, Mr. Bush's
political team and his foreign policy team are
emphasizing opposite messages, leading one senior
State Department official to say this week, in
exasperation, "Karl Rove ought to learn that any
ad he broadcasts in Iowa gets rebroadcast in
Italy."
* THE CLINTON
COMEDIES: Hillary Clinton probably thought
her visiting the troops in Baghdad would be a
big deal, but after yesterday only a few print
sources even mentioned her visit. Our country can
only hope for her a safe trip. Her welcome back
will not be as attention-grabbing as she had
anticipated and she will no doubt have certain
words of criticism for the Bush administration.
* NATIONAL: The Bush administration has
asked the WTO to delay the ratification meeting
concerning US steel tariffs being in violation of
trade agreements. The speculation is that the
administration will end the tariffs early. The
steel tariffs are a regional problem that have
political consequences. Reuters reports:
Ending the tariffs 16 months ahead of schedule
could spark a political backlash against Bush in
next year's presidential election in the pivotal
steel-producing states of Ohio, Pennsylvania and
West Virginia.
But key Bush advisers have concluded the tariffs
are causing more harm than good and that lifting
them would boost Bush's standing with steel
consuming industry, another important
constituency, political sources say.
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