The Iowa Daily Report, Saturday, November 29, 2003

* NOTABLE QUOTABLES:

Look at the numbers and the other pieces, and this guy [Dennis Kucinich] doesn't have a shot. He's at 3 percent in the Iowa polls, and about 2 percent or 3 percent nationally. On fund-raising he's near the bottom of the pack, and on the issues - the war, NAFTA, gay marriage - he's so far out there that even Michael Moore likes him. -- writes Des Moines Register editorialist Rob Borsellino.

“When you think of Joe Lieberman for President, think of a full shopping basket,” he said.

“Most of us are very lucky people, but there are those who live in the shadows,” John Kerry said.

"Homosexuality is a chosen lifestyle," he said. "I could not choose the color of my skin. ... For me to ride down the street and get profiled just because of my skin color is something a homosexual will never go through," said Rev. Talbert Swan II of Massachusetts.

"Leaks which make liberals look bad aren't as interesting or newsworthy to liberal reporters as leaks that make the Bush administration look bad," said Tim Graham, a journalism expert for the conservative Media Research Center.

"It's pretty hard to construct a scenario where somebody gets started from a standing start in all these states that come after that [Iowa Caucuses and New Hampshire]," Gephardt said in an interview when asked about the chances of stopping Dean if he wins the first two big contests. "But it's a question that we don't need to ask, because I'm going to win Iowa."

*TODAY’S OFFERINGS:

Stop Dean movement?

It’s beginning to look a lot like Dean vs. Gephardt

Clark’s WACO help

Kerry’s volunteerism

Lieberman the tax cut candidate

Tax cuts

Endorsements

What’s the matter with Edwards?

Battleground Florida

Bush & Baghdad editorial

Could Hillary be critical?

AmeriCorps

A house divided

* CANDIDATES & CAUCUSES:

Stop Dean movement?

Commentary by Roger Hughes

A Washington Times story explores the possibility of Democrats starting a Stop Dean Movement:

"There clearly are concerns about Dean's ability to appeal to the entire country, particularly on national security issues," former White House Chief of Staff Leon Panetta said in an interview.

"There is concern about how does [Dean´s antiwar campaign] play out a year from now? How can you compete with President Bush on the national security front? There is some concern about whether Dean can rise to the occasion on this issue," Mr. Panetta said.

The timing of this effort is predicted to come together sometime in December.

Other Democrats, including advisers to Mr. Dean's chief rivals, said they have heard increasing discussion about the need to mount a "stop-Dean" drive. They said they expect that to materialize in some form in December when Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts, Rep. Richard A. Gephardt of Missouri and possibly others will air a wave of anti-Dean TV ads in Iowa and elsewhere.

The problem exists that the regular party power structure is not comfortable with Howard Dean. This is especially true in the South. Some call it a battle between the Centrist Democrats and the Liberal Democrats. The fact that this is not an inter party fight should be apparent from the fact that new groups of individuals are energized by the Dean campaign. There is also the gathering of third party candidates’ supporters into the Dean camp.

Political realignments prior to FDR were generally foretold by third party activity. Third party activity has been significant since the candidacy of Ross Perot. Many blame Ralph Nader for President Bush’s election. Until these large blocks of voters find a home in one party or the other, American Presidential year elections will continue to be volatile.

Dean has been conducting an insurgency campaign that some say is like the McGovern campaign and others propose is more like Goldwater’s campaign. McGovern added new dimensions of strength to existing constituencies of what can best be described as the Eleanor Roosevelt wing of the Democrat Party. Goldwater’s campaign redefined who and what the Republican Party was. Prior to Goldwater, the Republican Party was dominated by the Eastern Establishment and the Midwest connection. After Goldwater, the Republican Party moved West. In fact, it was called the Western Strategy.

The relationship of Dean to Goldwater does not mean that Dean is destined to lose. Many forget that the reason Kennedy went to Dallas (the home state of his V.P.) was because his chances of being reelected were poor.

One of the aspects that may be occurring is that regionalism in politics may not play as significant a role now as in the past. One of the reasons that Dean has been successful is because of the ability of Dean to pull together disparate forces through the Internet foregoing geography.

 This could forever change the dynamic by which we judge realigning coalitions. Regional differences would undoubtedly count, but we would have to add other demographic coalitions as well as religion, ethnicity, occupation. We would need to ad internal value statements that do not fall neatly into the other demographic categories. It would be something beyond green for environmentalists.

Talk of a Stop Dean Movement is not so much about Dean as it is about who and what is the Democrat Party. It is a continuation of Sen. Zell Miller’s book.

It’s beginning to look a lot like Dean vs. Gephardt

A Washington Post article delves into the growing importance of Iowa. With New Hampshire becoming a lock for Dean at this point, the only bump in the road to the site of the national convention in Boston is Iowa. There, Dick Gephardt and Howard Dean are battling it out.

Dean continues on his drive to the nomination by having the largest war chest, volunteers and emotional supporters, intensity and firepower of anyone in the race. Only Gephardt’s union backers match Dean in any organized, significant way. The unions’ have already run independent ads in Iowa in support of Gephardt, as an example.

Dean’s strategy is to obliterate his opponents at every step of the campaign. This includes Gephardt in Iowa and John Kerry in New Hampshire.

Gephardt well could become the beneficiary of the developing movement by Democrat traditionalist to stop Dean. For that effort to come fully behind Gephardt, it will require Kerry’s fall and Wesley Clark’s failure. At some point there will be one candidate in opposition to Dean who will gain all the enmity of establishment Democrats against Dean.

Part of the delay of coalescing behind Gephardt is that he does not pull the intellectual base and both are pulling from the liberal wing of the party, according to the Post article:

Neither Gephardt nor Dean pretends he is a New Democrat. Instead, both are fighting from and for the left, reflecting not only the liberal makeup of the caucus participants in Iowa, but also the ideological shift in the party during Bush's presidency, one that could leave the center open to Bush in the general election.

Dean has used Gephardt's support for going to war in Iraq to try to drive a wedge between the former House Democratic leader and the antiwar activists in the party here. Gephardt has used Dean's past, and perhaps future, support for reining in the growth of federal entitlement programs such as Medicare and his support for the North American Free Trade Agreement to drive a wedge between Dean and the party's traditional economic liberals.

The race will be a bruising affair by all accounts. Dean has announced that he is pouring money into Iowa in order to affect the outcome. Gephardt continues to spend the lion’share of his time in Iowa and works incredibly hard. Post interview of Iowa Attorney General Tom Miller reflects the opinion in Iowa:

Iowa Attorney General Tom Miller (D) called Dean and Gephardt well-matched. "Dean has had just an amazing rise here and has a lot of support and has new people," he said. "He probably has broader support geographically, which is important on caucus night. And Gephardt hasn't blinked. He's got good labor support here, he's got his friends from 16 years' standing, he works hard, and I think he's distinguished himself in the campaign."

The thing that could be going for Dean is that this is not just about fighting for the liberal wing of the party. It could be about something else entirely.

Paul Maslin, Dean's pollster, said Gephardt's union base alone makes him formidable. "We respect Gephardt's strength," he said. "But there is something this year about Iowa's going first and being able to make a statement to the country and the party. Our campaign is the campaign with new energy. That's what differentiates Howard Dean this year. That may be a pretty decisive factor."

Clark’s WACO help

Wesley Clark’s campaign flatly denies that he had a planning role in Waco. An investigation by a Justice Department special counsel, former Senator John Danforth, Republican of Missouri, backs that claim

An Army division commanded by retired General Wesley K. Clark supplied some of the military equipment for the government's standoff with a religious sect in Waco, Texas, and Clark's deputy, now the Army chief of staff, took part in a crucial Justice Department meeting before the siege ended in disaster, according to military records. Clark's involvement in support of the Waco operation a decade ago was indirect and fleeting, according to his former commanding officer. But the assistance to civilian law enforcement agencies by military officers around Clark and soldiers under his command has prompted a flurry of questions to the Democrat's presidential campaign.

Kerry’s volunteerism

Sen. John Kerry highlighted his volunteer proposals yesterday. He has proposed mandatory volunteer service and college education for volunteer service. He even would allow grandparents to volunteer to provide grandchildren with college tuition. According to the Manchester Union Leader, Kerry volunteered at a homeless veterans shelter by helping to prepare it for occupancy:

Presidential candidate John Kerry yesterday proposed mandatory community service for high school students and free college tuition in return for two years of national service.

The Massachusetts senator outlined his proposal after helping clean woodwork and a stairwell at The Liberty House, a homeless shelter for veterans that is set to open next month.

Kerry provided some specifics about his hopes for the plan:

His community service proposal is a $3.5 billion plan to enlist 1 million Americans in community service that he would pay for by closing tax loopholes.

Kerry said he wants to return a sense of community service to the country.

His service-for-college initiative would offer students the equivalent of their state’s four-year, public college tuition in exchange for two years of national service. He hopes to enroll 500,000 young people a year in the program.

Lieberman the tax cut candidate

Sen. Joe Lieberman has long criticized his fellow Democrat candidates for not understanding that the American public -- especially middle class -- is over taxed. Now, Lieberman is offering his own tax cut plan. Lieberman said his own plan would put money in the pockets of 98 percent of taxpayers -- savings that will give them real purchasing power.

Visiting Sully's Superette, Lieberman said, "Every one of the Democratic candidates running for President claims to be a champion of the middle class. But the proof is in the pudding -- and I'm not talking about the kind you'll find in aisle seven."

"Howard Dean and Dick Gephardt -- two Democrats who say they want to help ordinary Americans -- want to whack our middle class with yet another whopper: raising their taxes," Lieberman continued. "And though John Kerry and others would let middle class families keep the limited relief they've got during the last three years, that's as far as they'll go."

"I'm very proud to be the only Democrat in this race who not only refuses to raise taxes on the middle class, but actually lowers rates for practically every taxpayer -- 98 percent of them," Lieberman said.

Lieberman said that the middle class today is under an awful strain -- with costs for college, health care, long term care, and child care on the rise, state and local taxes shooting up, and retirement funds having taken a hit. The last thing those families need, said Lieberman, is a federal tax hike. Lieberman said that under his plan, a family of four in Manchester that makes a combined $75,000 a year would save $760 on their tax bill compared to current law.

In contrast, Lieberman said that if John Kerry gets his way, that same family would pay $760 more in taxes than they would under Lieberman -- the same as they pay under current law. In practical terms, that's equal to about a third of the average worker's annual family health care bill in New Hampshire, nine months' worth of home heating oil, or enough to buy a new home computer. Howard Dean and Dick Gephardt would go even further, Lieberman said, forcing families to pay $2,700 more in taxes than they would under Lieberman's plan. That's equal to about four months of groceries, 70 percent of a year's worth of property taxes for a typical Manchester family, or more than two years' worth of home heating oil.

Lieberman's plan, which he first proposed in New Hampshire in October, would bring greater fairness to the tax system by lowering taxes for the middle class and asking corporations and the wealthy to pay their fair share.

First, Lieberman's plan would keep in place the middle class tax cuts that Democrats forced Bush to include in his packages -- such as the increase in the child tax credit and the elimination of the marriage penalty.

Second, to make the system better balanced, Lieberman would:

·        Restructure the income tax brackets in a systematic way

·        Reset the top two income tax rates that George W. Bush lowered

·        Lower the middle two rates for middle class families

·        Expand the Earned Income Tax Credit for low-income families

·        Restore the dividend tax that Bush repealed

·        Reform the estate tax that Bush repealed

·        Eliminate wasteful corporate loopholes and subsidies that Bush has protected

·        Add a limited 5 percent surtax to the highest income taxpayers that will prevent them from taking advantage of the lowered rates for middle class families

As a result, 98 percent of all taxpayers will get a tax cut as well three-quarters of all small business owners. In particular:

·        A married couple earning $50,000 could expect to save up $500.

·        Couples earning $75,000 could expect to save up to $1000.

·        Couples earning $100,000 could expect to save up to $1500.

·        Couples earning $150,000 could expect to save up to $2800.

In a recent survey of 50 of the country's leading economists, the Wall Street Journal asked which candidate's economic policies are best suited to increase employment, incomes and growth. Lieberman came out on top, with 29% of the economists surveyed saying his plan is best. The nearest competitor, Wes Clark, picked up less than half of Joe's support (13%).

Tax cuts

Rep. Dick Gephardt is becoming a pit bull by responding to every candidate on the block. His most recent action was to lash out at Sen. Joe Lieberman for wanting to increase the middle class tax cut. Dick Gephardt issued the following response to Sen. Joe Lieberman's attack on tax cuts today in New Hampshire.

"Democrats will not win the White House by arguing to keep intact some large part of George Bush's failed economic policy. My plan to guarantee every American quality health insurance that can never be taken away will do far more for middle class families than the Bush tax cut ever will."

Endorsements

Dick Gephardt is used to receiving endorsements, but in this case he endorsed a candidate for mayor of San Francisco.

"Today, I am proud to announce my endorsement of Gavin Newsom for Mayor of San Francisco. Like other cities throughout this country, San Francisco has suffered under the Bush economy and Gavin has the best plan to create high paying jobs and help San Francisco's small businesses survive during these tough economic times. Throughout his career, Gavin has always fought for San Francisco's working families and I believe he is going to be a great mayor."

What’s the matter with Edwards?

A NY Times story covers the question once again of why Sen. John Edwards isn’t doing better in his bid for his party’s nomination:

Mr. Edwards, in a recent interview, seemed a bit exasperated at again being asking about his stature — it is raised in nearly every lengthy story about him — and attributed his standing in the polls in the states with the first two primary contests to the struggle to become well known.

"I don't think I look all that young," he said. "You've probably heard me say my scars are all on the inside."

Battleground Florida

The Boston Globe reports on how Democrats and industry are using every possible influence to their advantage. One of the targeted demographics in Florida is the Cuban community. Recently the citrus and sugar industry targeted the community to send a message to Bush not to lift protective tariffs on their products. There are mixed reviews by the Cuban community according to the Globe:

The degree to which the 400,000-strong Cuban-American community in Florida shows up at the polls will be a critical factor. In 2000, months after the Clinton administration returned castaway Elian Gonzalez to his father in Cuba, exiles turned out in record numbers to vote in the presidential race. More than 8 of 10 of those votes went against Al Gore.

This summer, the Cuban-American National Federation and state Representative David Rivera, a Miami Republican, sent letters to Bush warning that he cannot count on the same high turnout next year. Bush has been blasted on Spanish talk radio for not doing enough after President Fidel Castro cracked down on dissidents in Cuba earlier this year and for continuing to return refugees intercepted at sea. Bush "needed to know that there are some frustrations in the community because when he came into office, expectations were very high," Rivera said this week. "He has a strong record in supporting the embargo, and we have the veto threat from him on any attempt to lift sanctions on the dictator. But we're hoping for more aid to dissidents. And we expect him to fulfill his 2000 campaign pledge to reassess migration policy toward Cuban refugees."

Neither party is taking the state for granted:

"The bottom line for both parties is, `Ignore Florida at your peril,' " said Susan McManus, professor of politics at the University of South Florida. "Both parties are on the ground earlier, organizing their get-out-the-vote effort, even having training sessions down to the precinct level and getting together their e-mail lists. In the past, they waited until the last minute, . . . but here we are a year out and they're hitting the ground running."

* ON THE BUSH BEAT:

Bush & Baghdad editorial

The Des Moines Register has an editorial that calls Bush’s trip to Baghdad inspiring, audacious and a political stunt. The editorial commends the President for bringing support to our troops. It sent a clear message that our nation supports them. However, it says, they are waiting for the real deal:

In the end, it is the symbolism that stands out. Now, the challenge is to transform symbolism into reality and put in place a well-conceived strategy for exiting Iraq and securing a better life for those 25 million Iraqis.

* THE CLINTON COMEDIES:

Could Hillary be critical?

A New York Post story titled “Hillary plays second Banana” has Hillary praising Bush for the Thanksgiving Dinner trip then criticizing the President’s policy:

"The obstacles and problems over here are much greater than the administration usually admits to," said Clinton, adding that she learned much from seeing things firsthand. "Everybody has to be honest."

Clinton, whose four-day trip was planned with less secrecy than Bush's, is nevertheless under tight security along with her traveling colleague Sen. Jack Reed (D-R.I.).

Clinton said she planned to spotlight some of her findings in coming weeks, but she did not elaborate.

Hillary also wants the United Nations to take over Iraq.

* NATIONAL:

AmeriCorps

A Washington Post article reports that Congressional budget negotiators have settled on funding for the nation’s volunteer program, AmeriCorps. Sen. John Kerry has promoted volunteerism in his candidacy and Sen. Hillary Clinton has criticized the Bush administration for not adequately funding the program her husband started:

After a year of management problems and budget woes for AmeriCorps, congressional negotiators agreed this week to give the troubled national service program $444 million for fiscal 2004.

The funding, part of the $328 billion year-end spending bill that House and Senate negotiators just completed, exceeds President Bush's budget request by $11 million and should be enough to meet his public pledge to expand AmeriCorps to 75,000 participants. Congress is expected to vote on the bill next month.

Campaign finance reform

E.J. Dionne editorial says he knows how to fix the campaign finance reform problem:

Personally, I'd favor a world in which there were enough incentives for small donors that largess of the Soros sort would be less needed and less effective. I'd also prefer that candidates be afforded some free media time and free mail so they could respond to outside attacks. But opponents of reform don't want those things to happen.

A house divided

An LA Times story covers the division between service unions and industrial unions in the fight to win their party’s candidates nomination from a personal standpoint. It demonstrates the changing conflict within the Democrat Party:

For years, Iowa's industrial and service unions have generally acted as one clan, one unified political force. But the effort to choose a Democratic candidate to oppose President Bush in the 2004 election has caused fissures in this traditionally ironclad solidarity.