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Iowa primary precinct caucus and caucuses news">
Iowa primary precinct caucus and caucuses news, reports
and information on 2004 Democrat and Republican candidates, campaigns
and issues Iowa
Presidential Watch's
IOWA DAILY REPORT Holding
the Democrats accountable today, tomorrow...forever.
PAGE 1
Tuesday, September 2, 2003
About today’s Daily Report:
Due to
the extensive number of news reports focusing on the
Dem wannabes and related topics, some of the
usual features and items have been dropped from
today’s update to accommodate extended coverage
of our primary mission – monitoring and reporting on
the ’04 presidential campaign. Likewise,
additional reports from yesterday will be carried in
tomorrow’s Report along with the standard
features. Besides – as with most holiday weekends –
it was a fairly slow news period, outside of the
wannabe-political coverage.
NOTABLE QUOTABLES:
“A lot of
people in the media and the conventional
wisdom say that Iowa and New Hampshire are
first. It takes awhile for people to accept
a new reality.” – Sean Tenner of
the D.C. Democracy Fund, commenting on
inattention to DC’s first-in-nation primary
GENERAL
NEWS:
Among
the offerings in today's update:
Report
of the day
– Kerry’s “announcing” his candidacy today,
but AP’s IA caucus watcher Mike Glover –
reporting from Charleston – writes that
divisions still exist over the campaign’s
direction.
(Iowa Pres
Watch Note: Joe Trippi, Dean’s
campaign manager, wins again -- and is
probably getting another laugh this morning
at the Kerry campaign’s expense.)
New York
Times headline notes “worried Democrats see
daunting hurdles” in 2004 campaign. Even
Harkin concedes it will be “very, very
difficult to defeat Bush next year.”
Hillary
wanders into coverup controversy –
OpinionJournal.com reacts after she says she
knows a coverup when she sees one
CBS News
poll: Two thirds of Democrats unable to name
any of the party’s wannabes. The wannabe
numbers: Lieberman 14%, Gephardt 11%, Dean
10%, Kerry & Sharpton 5% each
LA Times
political ace Ronald Brownstein writes that
Dean – armed with “a pile of money” – is
raising the Dem nominating stakes and
pressing other wannabes to make their next
moves soon
In New
Hampshire, Lieberman outlines his health
care plan – and will offer more detailed
health proposal today in Maryland
After RNC
chair Gillespie visits New Hampshire, the
New Hampshire Sunday News editorializes that
“the days of Reaganesque railings
against the expansion of federal government
are over.”
Detroit News
columnist writes that labor bosses look at
Dean and see a scenario that could
inspire “a new generation of Reagan
Democrats”
Orlando
Sentinel columnist Mark Silva examines
Dean’s surge, but warns that Dean's
wave “may well hit a reactionary
breakwater” when the campaign moves into
the Southern states
The
forgotten – and ignored -- primary: The
District of Columbia primary, a week before
Iowa caucuses, gets scant attention
Clark
computer jockeys at the starting gate, but
their wannabe horse is still wandering
around in the political pasture.
DraftClark group says “platoon leaders”
stationed nationwide
Washington
Whisper: Dean, now making “nice” with DNC
officials, sends out fundraising appeal –
but some dismiss it as a self-serving move
and indication Dean believes he has Dem
nomination locked up
Boston Globe
columnist Oliphant – noting that Dems are
ignoring Clinton themes and successes,
especially on economic issues – says
Kerry’s economic message could revive
his candidacy
Chicago
Tribune’s Jeff Zeleny reports that
Dean-Kerry battle expected to dominate
coming weeks while others try to “squeeze
into the top tier”
Here
comes Teresa – Known more for Botox comments
than political expertise, she’s headed to
campaign for hubby John Kerry in Iowa &
elsewhere
Moseley
Braun
says Islamic
community “faced with a new version of an
old struggle” after she was introduced as “the
darling of the Muslim American Community”
Miami
Herald headline says Dean “faces the test of
a lifetime”
– but he’s in class by himself in drawing
big crowds All these stories below and more.
… Kerry in
Iowa today for announcement. After an
initial “formal” announcement of his candidacy
today in South Carolina, Kerry will be
in Iowa this evening to further announce his
candidacy. An “after announcement” event will
be held tonight at the Hotel Fort Des Moines
in Des Moines. Kerry continues
his announcement tour tomorrow in New
Hampshire and Massachusetts.
… Insurgent
Dean -- now acting like a team player – sends
out fundraising appeal for the DNC.
Subhead from “Washington Whispers” in U. S.
News & World Report: “Dean moves to end the
Democratic family feud” Report by Whispers
columnist Paul Bedard: “Howard Dean, long
on the Democratic establishment's
you-know-what list for dumping on party boss
Terry McAuliffe, has made nice. Insiders
tell Whispers that Dean, the
front-runner in opinion polls and fundraising,
has become the first--and only--of the nine
presidential candidates to help McAuliffe
raise cash for the Democratic National
Committee Presidential Trust. ‘For all those
who think Dean and Terry don't get
along,’ says a party insider, ‘here's the
proof that the feud is over.’ Another official
'fessed that Dean's plea to big donors
was ‘shocking,’ but added: ‘We love this guy
now.’ In one letter shown to Whispers, Dean
asks a donor to pony up the maximum $25,000
for the fund. Of course, party officials
say the effort isn't totally magnanimous; it
suggests that the candidate thinks he has the
nomination sewn up. The trust is the kitty
that goes to the eventual party nominee to
fight President Bush. ‘He's already
looking to the general election,’ says an
official who also noted that the
self-declared liberal has started to tout
himself as a moderate.”
… Twenty years from
now, this could be the core curriculum for the
“How Not to Run For President” course: Kerry
and his consultants – on the eve of his
“formal” announcement – still undecided on the
message. Maybe they should have just flipped a
coin or let Teresa Heinz Kerry decide?
Headline from this morning’s The Union Leader:
“Senator spends 11th hour
writing candidacy speech” Excerpt
from coverage by the AP’s Mike Glover – who’s
normally stationed in IA watching for wannabes
threats, but just happened to be in Charleston
yesterday awaiting Kerry’s campaign
kickoff. Excerpt from Glover’s report: “Facing
a pivotal moment in his bid for the Democratic
presidential nomination, John Kerry worked
until the last minute on the speech that will
formally launch his candidacy. The 11th-hour
move exposed the divisions within his own team
over the campaign's direction. Once
considered the front-runner, Kerry now
trails Howard Dean in New Hampshire and
is bunched at the top of the field with Dick
Gephardt and Dean in Iowa.
Dean has gained traction with his
anti-Washington establishment campaign, which
has proven costly for lawmakers such as Kerry
and Gephardt. Dean's surge has revealed
a split among Kerry's advisers, with some
aides calling for aggressive tactics while
others urge caution, fearing that harsh
attacks would alienate the new voters Dean has
attracted to the Democratic Party.
Kerry dismissed the poll results, saying
‘they don't mean anything today’ because
voters are only beginning to pay attention,
and that's why he chose to officially announce
his campaign after Labor Day. ‘America is just
beginning to listen,’ said Kerry.
Critics, including some prominent Democrats,
have argued that Kerry needs to change his
approach to counter Dean's growth in the
polls. Kerry's aides, who spoke on condition
of anonymity, said the candidate was more
involved in the crafting of the speech, which
would reflect his personal view on the
campaign's direction. Some of Kerry's critics
have said the campaign is bloated with too
many aides and advisers. The Massachusetts
senator launches a high-profile swing formally
announcing his campaign for the Democratic
nomination on Tuesday, and that closely
watched speech likely will signal who has won
the internal campaign debate. The choice
Kerry faces is similar to what former
Vice President Al Gore had to deal with
before the 2000 election. Gore
relocated his campaign to Nashville, Tenn.,
and pared back his staff when his campaign
faltered early. After losing the New Hampshire
primary to Republican John McCain, George W.
Bush switched his message 180 degrees. At
the center of Kerry's claim for the nomination
is that his decorated Vietnam War-hero past
gives him credibility beyond any other
Democratic candidate in challenging Bush's
national security record. Some aides argued
for him to broaden that theme; it was certain
to be the centerpiece of his announcement.
Kerry was scheduled to deliver his
speech against the backdrop of the mammoth
aircraft carrier USS Yorktown in the harbor at
Charleston, S.C. At his side would be members
of the gunboat crew he commanded in Vietnam's
Mekong Delta. While Kerry voted last
October to authorize the use of military force
in Iraq, he has been critical of Bush's
handling of the conflict, particularly for
failing to enlist the help of other nations.
In recent weeks, Kerry has moved to
spell out his positions on issues ranging from
health care to the economy to protecting
veterans, but he was reserving his
high-profile announcement swing for an
‘overarching vision’ of where he would take
the country, aides said.’”
… CBS poll reveals
Unknown Wannabes – most voters don’t know any
of the Dem hopefuls. The main question,
however: Is Sharpton an overachiever or Kerry
an underachiever? The two are tied for fourth,
tied at 5%. Headlines: From CBSNews.com –
“Few Paying Mind To Dem Candidates”
From yesterday’s The Union Leader – “Lieberman,
Gephardt, Dean top national poll” Excerpt
from CBSNews.com: “Most voters haven't
started paying attention to the Democratic
presidential race, says a poll released on
Labor Day weekend — the campaign's traditional
starting point. Two-thirds of voters —
including two-thirds of Democrats — were
unable to name any of the Democratic
candidates for president, said the CBS News
poll out Sunday. Joe Lieberman, Dick Gephardt
and Howard Dean topped the field in the poll,
with relatively low numbers that suggest the
race remains wide open. Lieberman, Gephardt
and Dean were the only three in double digits
in support from registered Democrats.
Lieberman, a Connecticut senator, had the
backing of 14 percent; Gephardt, a
Missouri congressman, was backed by 11
percent; and Dean, former governor of
Vermont was at 10 percent. Other candidates
were in single digits. John Kerry, a
Massachusetts senator, was at 5 percent after
being in double digits in national polls most
of the year. Kerry will try to spark his
campaign this week with the formal
announcement of his candidacy. Al Sharpton had
5 percent; Bob Graham, a senator
from Florida was at 4 percent; John Edwards,
a senator from North Carolina, had 2 percent;
Carol Moseley Braun was at 2 percent;
and Dennis Kucinich, an Ohio
congressman, had 0 percent. Voters may not
know much about the candidates because few are
paying attention. Just 15 percent of
registered voters say they are paying a lot of
attention to the 2004 Presidential campaign.
More Democratic voters (19 percent) than
Republicans (13 percent) are paying a lot of
attention. This lack of attention is not
unusual; at about the same point in 1999, just
13 percent of voters were paying a lot of
attention to Campaign 2000. Four in 10
Democratic voters said they were satisfied
with the current field of nine candidates,
while half said they would like more choices.
When all voters were asked whether President
Bush will definitely be re-elected, 38 percent
said yes, but 50 percent said they think a
Democrat can win. When voters were asked
the same question about Bush's father in
October 1991, 66 percent said yes, but that
number dropped 20 points in the next month.
The first President Bush lost his re-election
bid. The poll of 775 registered voters was
taken Aug. 26-28 and has a margin of error of
plus or minus 4 percentage points, larger for
subgroups like Democratic voters.”
… “’We’re all in the
same boat.’ Braun tell Muslims here” –
headline from Sunday’s Chicago Sun-Times.
Coverage by Sun-Times religion editor Cathleen
Falsani: “In an unannounced
appearance Saturday at the Islamic Society of
North America's annual convention at McCormick
Place, former U.S. Sen. Carol Moseley Braun
compared the civil liberties struggle of
Muslim Americans today to the civil rights
movement of the 1950s and '60s. ‘The
Islamic community today is faced with a new
version of an old struggle,’ Braun
said. ‘My late mother used to say it doesn't
matter whether you came to this country on the
Mayflower or on a slave ship, through Ellis
Island or the Rio Grande. We're all in the
same boat now.’ Braun, who noted
ISNA is holding its 40th annual convention the
same week the 1963 March on Washington marked
its 40th anniversary, asked the crowd to
support her as a Democratic candidate for
president in 2004.
She is the
only presidential candidate of any party to
ever address the convention.
Kareem Irfan,
chairman of the Council of Religious Leaders
of Greater Chicago, introduced Braun as
‘the darling of the Muslim American
community,’ for her opposition to the war in
Iraq and the USA Patriot Act, which many
critics believe has eroded important civil
rights in the name of fighting terrorism.”
… While
other wannabes highlight pro-union appeal
during Labor Day weekend, Lieberman details
his health care plan in New Hampshire.
Coverage – datelined Concord – in yesterday’s
The Union Leader by AP’s Annie Saunders:
“Democratic presidential hopeful Joseph
Lieberman used Labor Day weekend to
introduce his plan to provide affordable
health insurance for laid-off workers. The
Connecticut senator said he will release a
more complete health plan on Tuesday. But
campaigning in the state Sunday, he introduced
many elements of his plan, including a goal to
limit spending on health insurance to no more
than 7.5 percent of any family's income.
‘The number one and number two worries of
American workers are about job security and
about health care security,’ he said in a
phone interview Sunday. Lieberman noted
that laid-off workers can continue to get
coverage under their former employer's health
plan if they pay the full cost of the premium
under COBRA. For a family without a paycheck,
that can be difficult to afford, Lieberman
said. His plan would allow laid-off
employees to receive a tax credit or, in some
cases, collect a government check to subsidize
the COBRA payments until the employee finds
another job. No worker would pay more than
7.5 percent of his or her income to keep COBRA
coverage, Lieberman said. He
estimated the total cost of his health care
plan at $55 billion per year for the first
five years - a sum he said he would cover by
eliminating some of President Bush's tax cuts
to upper-income individuals.
Lieberman's proposal includes a
‘Medi-Kids’ plan that would cover children by
creating a sliding scale payment system based
on family income. Families at 185 percent
of the federal poverty level, or earning
roughly $34,000 annually, would not pay to
cover their children, but families above that
level would pay according to the sliding
scale, Lieberman said. Lieberman
also proposes to use ‘Medi-Kids’ for young
adults ages 18 to 25, allowing them to buy
health insurance with payments of no more than
7.5 percent of their income. Lieberman
said this would get many of the young adults
who forgo health insurance into the habit of
paying for coverage. Lieberman's plan also
includes a provision to allow anyone lacking
affordable health insurance to buy into a
health insurance plan modeled after the one
that federal employees and members of Congress
use. Lieberman said he would cap
the insurance premium at 7.5 percent of a
person's income. Lieberman said his plan
should cover 31 million of the 41 million
people currently without insurance in the
United States.”
… “Economic focus helps
Kerry” – headline on Thomas Oliphant
column in Sunday’s Boston Globe. Oliphant
contends that Kerry’s economic thrust has
potential to redirect the Mass Sen to the Dem
nomination. Excerpt from Oliphant’s
column: “The presidential campaign that John
Kerry is ‘formally’ launching this week
in South Carolina is built on biography and
resume -- political sand castles that usually
disappear with the next tide. It is a
campaign, off its performance for most of this
weird year, that is capable of heading
straight into a ditch. But the campaign that
Kerry displayed last week is built on an
economic message that is just as capable of
heading in the opposite direction, toward the
Democratic nomination. Biography and
resume, by definition, are about him. An
economic message is about us. In a chat
with journalists before Kerry's
presentation in Durham, N.H., last week, a
senior Kerry adviser well versed in the
ways of Washington and Wall Street expressed
amazement at how easily Democrats have
forgotten the core lessons of Bill Clinton's
presidency, when getting economic
fundamentals right supported and stimulated
prosperity. The core of government policy, he
said, must focus on the most powerful engine
of growth -- America's middle-class -- for
reasons that include simple fairness and
politics as well as sound economics. In
addition, discipline must be maintained over
the huge federal budget, and trade policy must
be ‘progressive’ to foster American exports,
meaning no rollbacks of existing international
agreements and a willingness to pursue new
ones. That is the essence of Kerry's
approach, which stands not only as a solid
means of reversing an astonishingly poor
record by the Bush administration but as a
forceful rebuke of two competitors -- Howard
Dean and Dick Gephardt -- who have let their
fixation on a single issue (universal health
insurance) cloud their judgment about the
income tax burden on ordinary Americans…This
portion of Kerry's speech deserves
repeating: ‘We shouldn't make it harder for
middle-class families to make ends meet and we
shouldn't turn our backs on making the 21st
century work for all of us. But some in my
party are so angry at George Bush and his
unfair tax cuts that they think the solution
is to do the exact opposite.’ Anger, the
source of Dean's surge, is a poor substitute
for sound policy. His proposal would raise the
income tax burden on middle-income households
by as much as $2,000 a year, putting a
ridiculously brutal squeeze on families, the
elderly included, that are being pinched by
hard times and the rising cost of essentials
as never before. Kerry's proposal
shows how concentrating on the top-rate tax
cuts and other high-income areas yields more
than enough money to stimulate the economy in
the short-term, but also to slash the deficit
over time so massive federal borrowing doesn't
choke off recovery…One speech will not be
enough for Kerry -- or for John Edwards and
Joe Lieberman, who have similar views. The
key question is which candidate will fasten
upon a middle-class economic message, almost
to the exclusion of everything else, and make
the contrast with Dean a question of
values. I suspect most people believe Kerry is
as qualified to be president as anyone has
ever been. They want to know whether he can
make a difference in their difficult lives.”
… Report from the
Dean frontlines: 10,000 looked like a big
crowd in Seattle – until 15,000 showed at New
York City rally. Headline from Sunday’s
Miami Herald: “Dean faces the test of a
lifetime…The former Vermont governor’s off
to a great start, but can the dazzle last?”
Excerpts from report by the Herald’s Peter
Wallsten: “Howard Dean, the once-unknown
physician-turned-governor of a tiny state,
climbed to the podium in a downtown Seattle
park this week and looked out in amazement at
the scene below: 10,000 people, chanting his
name in unison. It was the largest crowd to
gather anywhere this year for a Democratic
presidential candidate -- until the following
night, when about 15,000 crammed into a park
near New York's Times Square to chant Dean's
name and boo President Bush. By all
measures, the events of the past month have
elevated Dean, 54, to the top of the heap of
Democrats seeking the nomination to challenge
Bush in 2004. He is raising more money,
generating more excitement and garnering
higher polling numbers than anyone --
surpassing the race's supposed heavyweight,
Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts, in a
recent poll of New Hampshire voters by a 38-17
margin. Next week, Dean's campaign begins
airing ads in six states far from the
traditionally early battlegrounds of Iowa and
New Hampshire, thanks largely to an
unexpectedly fruitful three-month fundraising
period that strategists predict will total
more than $10 million by Sept. 30. It's
enough for Dean campaign manager, Joe Trippi,
a Diet Pepsi-swilling veteran of presidential
politics and the father of Dean's
Internet-based success, to declare this ‘the
most successful insurgent campaign in our
party's history.’ Or, as Dean puts it, ‘This
isn't just a campaign. It's a movement.’
But could this really be a real-life Josiah
Bartlet -- the liberal Democratic president
from a small New England state played by
Martin Sheen on TV's The West Wing -- for
2004? For all of the glory of his campaign's
surprising success, Dean is about to
undergo the test of a lifetime: The
scrutiny and scorn from opponents in his own
party, who view him as too liberal to pose a
potent challenge to Bush; from Republicans
seeking to discredit a potential Democratic
nominee; and from a national media eager to
dig into the life and times of an obscure
former governor of a largely white state with
a third the population of Miami-Dade County.
Dean's leading rivals are already charging
that his dazzle will not last, that he is
tapping an ‘anger vein,’ as one opposing
strategist put it, rampant in a limited set of
young, mostly white protester types.
Absent from Dean's base are substantial
numbers of blacks, Hispanics and labor union
activists. Dean supporters ‘represent a
particular and discrete demographic of people
who are very angry,’ said Chris Lehane, a
senior advisor to Kerry. ‘It's a
demographic that spends a lot of time on the
Internet.’
… What will Teresa
focus on during his campaign appearances? Tax
credits for Botox treatments or prenuptial
agreements for gay marriages? Headline
from Sunday’s Boston Herald: “Kerry’s wife
spices up bid” Coverage by the Herald’s
Andrew Miga: “Teresa Heinz Kerry, stepping
back into the spotlight after a low-key
summer, will soon boost her profile on the
presidential campaign trail with appearances
for her husband in key states such as Iowa and
New Hampshire. The outspoken comments
by the wealthy wife of Sen. John F. Kerry
on matters ranging from marital fidelity and
prenuptial agreements to Botox cosmetic
treatments generated headlines last spring
during a round of media interviews. She was
less visible in the media during the summer
months, however. Kerry has complained that
the media has unfairly portrayed his wealthy
wife as a ‘loose cannon’ whose freewheeling
ways could undermine his candidacy. Kerry
advisers contend her brash, independent-minded
personality will be a campaign asset - a
dose of Sen. John McCain-style authenticity
that will play well with jaded voters turned
off by slick campaign messages. ‘She is her
own person and voters tend to like people who
speak their minds with no holds barred,’ said
one Kerry adviser. ‘She is an asset.’
Heinz Kerry plans to appear at a string of
fund-raising events on behalf of her husband,
campaign sources said, and will speak before
small groups of voters in grassroots-style
events over the next two months. She will
accompany her husband on his campaign plane
this week as he formally launches his
presidential bid in South Carolina, Iowa, New
Hampshire and Boston. She will also travel
to New Mexico for the first presidential
debate to be held Thursday in Albuquerque.
Next weekend she will host a major
fund-raising event for high-end Kerry
fund-raisers at her Brant Point, Nantucket
home.”
…
Pro-Clark computer junkies ready to roll, but
lack one essential element – a candidate.
Headline from Sunday’s Washington Post: “Web
Sites Ready To Help a Clark Campaign”
Report by the Post’s Lois Romano: “While
retired Gen. Wesley Clark ponders whether to
become the 10th candidate to join the
Democratic presidential race, an independent
online Clark campaign stands ready to lend an
organizational hand should he decide to run.
Two Web sites, which have for months been
managing a draft Clark movement, have
developed potentially useful field
organizations and resources for Clark. In
addition, more than 10,000 supporters have
signed up for Clark at Meetup.com -- a
free Web site that helps organize meetings
across the globe for those with specific
interests. An aide to Clark said last
week that the former NATO supreme allied
commander has done nothing organizationally to
prepare for a race except give speeches and
talk to reporters. Clark supporters hope
the online organizations will end up being a
ready-made campaign for him in the same way
Howard Dean's campaign has harnessed its
extraordinary online support. ‘We're human
capital,’ said Jason McIntosh, director of
DraftClark2004.com, based in Little Rock,
Clark's home town. Larry Weatherford, the
site's political director, said that he has
coordinators in every state who are willing to
work for Clark, and versed in the legal
requirements for getting on the ballot in each
of the states. The other site,
DraftWesleyClark.com, based [in
Washington], has pledges of more than $1
million for Clark. John Hlinko,
co-founder of the site, said the organization
has field ‘platoon leaders’ in almost every
state, and thousands of volunteers. Still,
political operatives question whether Clark --
who has never held elected office -- can truly
pull off a campaign starting just four months
before the first votes are cast in a
fast-paced front-loaded system that favors
organization and money. While his online
support is impressive, it does not come close
to Dean's 100,000-plus online
volunteers and 94,000 Meetup supporters.
Clark has said he will make his decision early
in September -- perhaps at a scheduled speech
in Iowa. Skip Rutherford, a longtime Bill
Clinton operative in Little Rock, said
Arkansans stand ready to support another
favorite son, but that Clark has not
given them the go-ahead. ‘He truly hasn't made
a decision,’ said one source close to Clark.
‘He keeps going back and forth. His wife still
has a lot of reservations.’”
… “Hopefuls look
to leapfrog into lead…9 Democrats seek
broader appeal” – headline from Sunday’s
Chicago Tribune. Excerpts from report –
datelined Council Bluffs – by Tribune
national correspondent (and former Des Moines
Register reporter) Jeff Zeleny: “As the
presidential campaign moves into a crucial
fall phase this weekend, the overriding drama
for Democrats is the surging, unexpected
campaign of former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean,
who has captivated the imagination of party
loyalists, raised the bar on fundraising and
forced his rivals to scramble. The coming
weeks and months will test Dean's staying
power as he faces the white-hot scrutiny
that leads up to the Iowa caucuses in January.
Whether Dean can survive the attacks
that inevitably attend the front-runner and
convince voters that he has the heft to be
president remains an open question. It is far
too early to know who among the nine
Democratic presidential hopefuls will surge
and who will fall. But the fight between
Dean and Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry--who
was once viewed as the top candidate but has
been eclipsed by his fellow New Englander's
glow--appears likely to dominate for a time,
as other candidates try to squeeze into the
top tier. Perhaps no month will be more
critical for the Democrats than September,
when they seek to broaden their appeal beyond
the small political circles of Iowa and New
Hampshire and prepare for the expansive
primary season. The month's schedule
includes three televised debates, three
ceremonial announcements and, most important,
a telling 30-day period for candidates to
prove their viability before the third quarter
of fundraising closes Sept. 30. The
Democrats have been battling it out in quiet
fashion for months, playing to select
audiences of party activists in
early-balloting states. But the intense
politicking has produced neither a definite
front-runner nor a consensus on the type of
candidate best equipped to challenge President
Bush. The party's leading candidates are
divided on the war in Iraq, how to address the
health-care crisis and the degree to which
Bush should be castigated for the nation's
domestic and foreign troubles. Even as
Democrats express confidence in Bush's
vulnerability, citing the prolonged battle in
Iraq and a still-unhealed economy, party
activists disagree whether an insurgent such
as Dean, with a knack for inspiring new
voters, or a seasoned Washington hand and war
veteran such as Kerry would make a
stronger candidate. ‘It's an open book,’ said
Mike Gronstal of Council Bluffs, the
Democratic leader of the Iowa Senate who has
met repeatedly with each of the major
candidates. ‘Most Democrats are hungry for
a win. But do you win by firing up your base
or do you win by moving to the center?’”
… Even when he’s
not in sight, Dean dominates latest wannabe
discussions. Headline from yesterday’s The
Union Leader: “Kerry, Lieberman fire at
front-runner Dean” Excerpt from AP report
– datelined Washington – by AP’s Jennifer C.
Kerr: “He wasn't even on the Sunday talk
shows, but Howard Dean got plenty of air time
as his Democratic rivals for the White House
took aim at the former Vermont governor.
‘Howard Dean has zero experience in
international affairs,’ said Massachusetts
Sen. John Kerry on NBC's Meet the
Press. ‘The presidency is not the place for
on-the-job training in this new security
world,’ he said. Dean has opened up a
wide lead over Kerry - by more than 20
points - in the latest poll in New Hampshire,
a key state because of its Jan. 27 primary.
Dean had been trailing Kerry earlier this
year. Kerry dismissed the new numbers,
saying, ‘I'm not concerned about it.’ He
added, ‘Summertime is not when presidential
races are won.’ Dean aides said their
candidate is gaining ground and that must be
making Kerry nervous. ‘For seven months
they ignored us, now they're attacking us,’
said campaign manager Joe Trippi. ‘I wonder
why that is?’ White House hopeful Joe
Lieberman also had Dean in the political
crosshairs. The Connecticut senator said Dean
is not the candidate to take on President
Bush: ‘I worry that he cannot win.’ On
CBS' Face the Nation, Lieberman also
accused Dean of flip-flopping on some of his
positions. ‘He's got to let the American
people know exactly where he stands,’ said
Lieberman.”
… Worries – a
possibly weak prez field and GWB’s “huge
advantage” – top Dem agenda as they look
beyond the Labor Day weekend campaign kickoff.
Headline from Sunday’s New York Times: “Worried
Democrats See Daunting ’04 Hurdles”
Excerpt from report – datelined Walpole, NH –
by the Times’ Adam Nagourney: “The race for
the Democratic presidential nomination shifts
into a more intense phase this Labor Day
weekend, with some party leaders worried
about the strength of their field of
candidates and fearful of what they view as
President Bush's huge advantage going into
next year's election. Many prominent
Democrats said that Mr. Bush might be
vulnerable, given problems with the economy,
and continued American fatalities in Iraq.
But they said he could be unseated only by an
aggressive, partisan challenge that built on
Democratic anger lingering from the 2000
election, and by a nominee who somehow managed
to survive a complicated nominating fight that
was pulling their party to the left. ‘It's
going to be tough,’ said Walter F. Mondale,
the former vice president who lost his
challenge to Ronald Reagan in 1984. ‘You're
trying to beat an incumbent who has all this
money, and who has got the field all to
himself, while all this infighting is going on
in the Democratic Party.’ Senator Tom
Harkin, Democrat of Iowa, said: ‘It's going to
be very, very difficult to defeat Bush next
year. He will have more money than any
candidate in history.’ Even at a packed
rally for Howard Dean this morning on a
farm in this community just across the border
from Vermont, some Democrats were expressing
concern that none of their candidates appeared
to have what it would take to defeat Mr. Bush,
with many mixing strong praise for Dr. Dean
with skepticism about his ability to defeat
Mr. Bush. ‘I think it is a weak field,’
said John Meyer, 41, an architect from
Henniker, who said he was waiting to see if
Gen. Wesley K. Clark would enter the race.
‘A lot of them are lackluster candidates.’
Against this daunting general election
backdrop, the nominating contest is as
unsettled as any Democratic presidential
competition in 20 years, with candidates who
have struggled for months to win attention
from a nation that seems to have things on its
mind other than an election that is 15 months
away. For now, Dr. Dean is widely
viewed by Democrats as the leading contender,
followed by Senator John Kerry of
Massachusetts. Their two-way contest within a
contest follows a remarkable surge this summer
by Dr. Dean, a physician and former
Vermont governor who was once viewed as little
more than a one-issue maverick. It also
speaks of a shortfall in Mr. Kerry's strategy
of clearing the field by presenting himself as
the inevitable choice of his party…Some
Democrats worry that Dr. Dean would prove
an easy mark for Mr. Bush, given his
liberal views and his lack of any experience
in foreign affairs; others warn that Mr.
Kerry is an awkward public figure who has run
a timorous campaign. At least three other
Democratic candidates — Senator Joseph I.
Lieberman of Connecticut, Representative
Richard A. Gephardt of Missouri and
Senator John Edwards of North Carolina
— have turned their attention to what has
become a fight for third place. Their
calculation is that Mr. Kerry or Dr. Dean will
flounder in the opening Democratic contests.
‘I think it's a three-person race: It's us,
Dean and Kerry,’ said Steve Elmendorf, a
senior adviser to Mr. Gephardt, in a
formulation that was echoed with only slight
variations by advisers to Mr. Lieberman
and Mr. Edwards.”
… “Labor
leaders look at Dean and see a combination of
George McGovern and Michael Dukakis. They see
the inspiration for a new generation of Reagan
Democrats.” – Sentences from Detroit News
commentary. Headline on Nolan Finley
commentary: “Howard Dean may inspire new
generation of Reagan Democrats” Excerpt
from Finley’s column in Sunday’s News: “What's
giving the bosses of Big Labor bellyaches as
the nation heads into another presidential
race? The prospect that Howard Dean might end
up carrying the Democrats' water next fall.
Dean is the folksy physician from Vermont,
a former governor who speaks to the heart of
die-hard Democratic lefties. He is inspiring
an army of aging hippies and youthful
idealists who find in his liberal ideals hope
for wresting America from the fat cats and
returning it to the people. Dean
grabbed all the press in the summer campaign
warm-up. His rallies were part tent revival,
part Phish festival. Polls now show him well
ahead of the rest of the Democratic pack in
the early primary states. And the money is
simply pouring in. Dean-ites look at their
man and see a John McCain-style straight
talker with Ralph Nader's playbook. Labor
leaders look at Dean and see a combination of
George McGovern and Michael Dukakis. They see
the inspiration for a new generation of Reagan
Democrats. A soft-on-defense, anti-war,
tax-and-spender who will send their members
rushing into the arms of George W. Bush. Labor
delivered the votes for Bill Clinton in 1996
and Al Gore in 2000, and that quieted
fears that the GOP had hijacked labor's core.
But union members are flag-wavers, much
more conservative on issues like national
security and gun control, and not likely to
fall in line behind an old school peacenik
like Dean. If they go in big numbers to
Bush and the GOP, it increases the possibility
that Republicans will win super majorities in
the Senate and House, clearing the way for
implementing the conservative agenda. So some
labor leaders are agitating for unification
behind a single Democratic candidate to
counter the Dean surge. The Teamsters
have already endorsed Dick Gephardt,
the Missouri congressman who has the best
defense credentials of any of the Democrats
except Sen. Joe Lieberman of
Connecticut. Several other unions are also
backing Gephardt. But Gephardt
shares the same affliction as most of the
other candidates. He's dull, boring, dry as
toast. Union members may give him their vote
-- but first they have to care enough
to come to the polls. Dean, on the
other hand, has the fire. He can speak to the
25 percent of voters who hate Bush and will
bring out college students who otherwise
wouldn't vote. And in a primary or caucus
clogged with candidates, that could be all it
takes to capture the delegation. That would
leave labor in a position it hoped never to be
in again -- using membership money to back a
candidate its members can't stomach. Labor
thinks it has a shot at Bush, even if national
defense remains a top shelf issue, if the
Democrats field a candidate able to articulate
the concern over a declining manufacturing
base and the loss of union jobs. Dean may
talk the talk on trade and job protection, but
union members are smart enough to know that
jobs don't come from that far left.
Privately, some union officials hint they may
effectively sit out the general election if
Dean wins the nomination. That may be the
safest position. Reagan Democrats may not be
as wild for Bush as they were for the Gipper,
but at this point, it's hard to see them
connecting with Howard Dean.”
… District
of Columbia primary gets little attention.
It’s a week before Iowa, but it appears the
wannabes may not know it – or care.
Headline from Sunday’s Washington Post: “Candidates’
D. C. Primary Strategies Build Slowly…Iowa
Vote Will Follow City’s, but It’s Foremost On
Most People’s Minds” Excerpt from coverage by
the Post’s David Nakamura: “Presidential
candidate Joseph I. Lieberman was
fielding questions about hot-button issues
after wrapping up a recent speech at Howard
University: the economy, education, the war in
Iraq. But when a reporter tried to ask
Lieberman about his campaign strategy for
D.C.'s first-in-the-nation Democratic primary
Jan. 13, an aide intervened. ‘I'll be honest,’
Jano Cabrera said. ‘We can't answer that
because we haven't decided internally what we
want to do about that.’ The U.S. senator
from Connecticut would be made available to
talk about it the next day, Cabrera promised,
presumably after the campaign had enough time
to formulate a game plan. No one was quite
sure what to expect when D.C. Democratic Party
representatives maneuvered to gain national
attention for the city's push for statehood,
voting rights and representation in Congress
by moving the District's primary ahead of
Iowa's Jan. 19 caucuses and New Hampshire's
Jan. 27 primary. Was it a serious proposal? A
stunt? More important: Would it matter who
won? Now, with just over four months to go,
most candidates, while stressing the
importance of campaigning in the District,
appear uncertain just how much effort to put
into their D.C. campaigns. Their schedules
are packed with appearances in Iowa and New
Hampshire. ‘I think it's going to keep
building, but you'd always like to see more
participation,’ said Sean Tenner of the D.C.
Democracy Fund, a D.C. voting rights group.
‘A lot of people in the media and the
conventional wisdom says that Iowa and New
Hampshire are first. It takes awhile for
people to accept a new reality.’ D.C.
political activists acknowledge that the move
was a desperate stunt to force the issue of
D.C. representation onto the national agenda.
And although the primary is nonbinding -- a
requirement because Democratic National
Committee rules prohibit placing a primary
before Iowa's and New Hampshire's -- D.C.
activists said they expect delegates to
support the winner. D.C. residents ‘are more
inclined to vote for Democrats than anyone
else, and we get more political news here than
most jurisdictions, so we are the most
qualified of all voters in the country,’ said
A. Scott Bolden, head of the D.C. Democratic
State Committee. ‘If you agree with that, then
it makes sense that if you run in the District
it can be a real proving ground or testing
ground.’ And it does matter who wins, the
activists and candidates say -- or, to put it
another way, it certainly won't help to finish
last. ‘It matters if we finish ninth,’
conceded Frank Watkins, campaign manager for
Al Sharpton of New York. ‘That would be
a problem.’ Some candidates, such as former
Vermont governor Howard Dean, Sen. John F.
Kerry (Mass.) and Lieberman, have a
significant number of grass-roots supporters
here -- up to 600 in Dean's case -- volunteers
who hold rallies, car washes, meet-and-greets
and fundraisers. Several candidates are
scheduled to attend the Kennedy/King gala
dinner Nov. 1 at the Convention Center, an
event that will draw up to 1,000 registered
voters.”
… “With a
Pile of Money, Dean Ups the Ante…Primaries
are months away, but the other candidates are
pressed to make a move soon.” – headline on
Ronald Brownstein column in Sunday’s Los
Angeles Times. Excerpts from Brownstein’s
column: “After beginning the year as a
longshot, former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean
has surged past his rivals as the race for the
Democratic presidential nomination hits the
Labor Day milepost. Dean has raised
more money than any of his opponents in recent
months, rocketed to the top not only of polls
in Iowa and New Hampshire but some national
surveys of Democrats, and drawn much larger
crowds than usually seen at this point in the
nomination process. ‘Dean has dramatically
altered the race,” said Simon Rosenberg,
president of the New Democrat Network, a
centrist Democratic group. ‘He has become the
front-runner.’ Major tests await Dean,
including a series of candidate debates that
begin this week. And more twists and turns may
be inevitable, since relatively few Democrats
outside of the first states on the primary
calendar are paying close attention to the
contest. ‘No campaign has ever put a lock
on things in the summer,’ said Jim Jordan,
campaign manager for Sen. John F. Kerry
(D-Mass.). ‘This thing will be settled
somewhere in the snow.’ But with Dean
demonstrating so much strength, the pressure
is rapidly intensifying on the contest's eight
other candidates to slow his momentum or
increase their pace — or both. Although
the first voters won't cast ballots until
January, a wide range of Democratic
strategists say that if the other candidates
cannot change the race's trajectory in the
next three months, Dean may establish
advantages too large to overcome. ‘Whatever
third-quarter strategy they have been waiting
to unveil, it's time to unveil it now,’ said
Donna Brazile, who managed Democratic nominee
Al Gore's 2000 campaign. ‘If they have
something to offer the American people, I
don't know what they are waiting for.’
Dean appears on track to raise
significantly more money than his Democratic
rivals for the reporting period that ends
Sept. 30. That would send shock waves
through a Democratic establishment still
concerned that Dean's unrelenting opposition
to the war in Iraq might make him an easy
general election opponent for President Bush…That
imperative is likely to mean more attacks
on Dean in the weeks ahead, starting Thursday
in New Mexico at the first of several debates
sanctioned by the Democratic National
Committee. But finding ways to attract a
second look at their own campaigns may be even
more important for the other main contenders —
Kerry, Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut, Sen.
John Edwards of North Carolina and Rep.
Richard A. Gephardt of Missouri, all of whom
have found themselves overshadowed by Dean.
‘There is plenty of time,’ said longtime
Democratic pollster Peter Hart, who is neutral
in the race. ‘The question is: Is there a
message or a persona by which one of the other
candidates can emerge? Part of the reason
Dean has emerged is that nobody else has
presented a very detailed or attractive
picture.’ With the war in Iraq and the
California gubernatorial recall dominating the
news and the 2004 election more than 14 months
away, presidential politics seem distant to
most Americans. But the calendar is already
pressing on the Democratic hopefuls.”
… On the Clark Wannabe Watch: Under the
subhead “Clark's 'artillery'” in
yesterday’s Washington Times, Greg Pierce
reported in his “Inside Politics” column: ”Wesley
Clark's closest friends say the retired
general leans toward jumping into the race to
become the Democratic Party's nominee for the
2004 presidential race, Newsweek reports.
‘I've got recon out there,’ Mr. Clark
told the magazine, rejecting the notion it
might be too late to enter the race. I've got
some heavy artillery that can come in. I've
got logistics, I've got strategic mobility.’
But Mr. Clark, who would become the 10th
candidate for the nomination, did not say
specifically that he would enter. Mr.
Clark, 58, was the supreme allied
commander in Europe and led NATO forces in the
war against the Serbs in Kosovo in 1999. Mr.
Clark slammed President Bush's recent
speech in which he painted Iraq as the main
theater in the worldwide fight against
terrorism. ‘You can't win without a
vision, and that means working with allies,’
Mr. Clark told the magazine. ‘It means
using force when it's appropriate, and as a
last resort, and not because it looks easy.
Because, as we're finding out in Iraq, it
isn't easy.’”
… “What’s the deal
with Dean?” – headline on Mark Silva’s
Sunday column in the Orlando Sentinel. Excerpt
from Silva’s column: “At least 10,000 people
pack shoulder to shoulder in a city park and
spill into the streets of downtown Seattle on
a Sunday night to see an awestruck Democrat
running for president, five months before any
state starts primary voting. ‘Can you hear me
all the way down that street over there?’
Howard Dean, the candidate, calls from
his platform. ‘This is unbelievable,’ says
Dean, ex-governor of a tiny and faraway state.
‘This crowd is so enormous, I'm a little
awestruck.’ Later, behind stage, Dean
is asked about the building momentum of his
campaign for his party's 2004 presidential
nomination. ‘It's pretty scary,’ he allows.
Dean, who came from backwater Vermont with
an audacious bid for the White House, has
scared more than himself. He has shaken up
a pack of established, Washington-based
Democrats, some complaining that Dean is too
liberal to wage a credible challenge against
President Bush. And, the GOP is reveling at
that prospect…Dean offers, on the
hustings, the seldom-seen inspiration of a
political leader courageous, combative and
powerfully intelligent. Fiercely critical
of Bush and the war with Iraq and refreshingly
optimistic about the possibilities for this
country: An economic revival and commitment to
health care ‘for every single American.’…’I
want an America based on hope,’ Dean, a former
family physician, tells growing and exuberant
audiences. ‘Not an America based on fear.’…Dean
may be riding a wave among progressive primary
voters in New Hampshire and antiwar
caucus-goers in Iowa this summer. But when the
presidential campaign heads South -- to the
war-supporting and self-described moralistic
region that Bush swept state-by-state in 2000
-- Dean's wave may well hit a reactionary
breakwater…With eyes on the West Wing,
Dean is striving to dispel the notion that he
inhabits the Left Wing. Dean, who balanced
the budget in a state whose constitution does
not demand fiscal prudence, who offered
businesses tax breaks as incentives for
development, who enjoys praise from the
National Rifle Association, says he stands
ready to dispatch American forces to die
abroad in the defense of his country.”
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