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Iowa 2004 presidential primary precinct caucus and caucuses news, reports and information on 2004 Democrat and Republican candidates, campaigns and issues

Iowa Presidential Watch's

The Democrat Candidates

Holding the Democrats accountable today, tomorrow...forever.

Howard Dean

excerpts from the Iowa Daily Report

January 16-31, 2004

  • "I ask you please to bring a friend, I ask you to bring five friends, drag somebody with you, I ask you to make phone calls," Howard Dean said.
  • “[Clark] is a good guy, but I truly believe he's a Republican," said Howard Dean.
  • "I think everybody has a little anxiety when they approach a job like that,'' Howard Dean said of the presidency. ``During my life, I've made hard decisions about people who could die if I made the wrong decision.
  • "…the Republicans are much meaner than the Democrats are. I don't want to absolve the Democrats, but Republicans are just brutal. They do not care what happens to the country as long as they stay in power, and they're willing to do anything they can to stay in power." – Howard Dean, in a new interview with Rolling Stone magazine.
  • "I think we're going to win here [Iowa]," Howard Dean said, "though we need every single Iowan to get to the polls in order to do it."  (1/16/2004)

Race up for grabs

In a tight race anything can happen and usually does. However, an organization that has been identifying which voters are favorable to the candidate and turnout of those voters is everything at this point. The polls are probably underestimating the Gephardt and Dean support. Many of Dean’s supporters have cell phones and are not being called in the polling numbers we are seeing. The other group that is probably under-represented are the union members supporting Gephardt. Contrary to popular belief, many of these people are not registered as Democrats, and therefore not called in polling endeavors.

In the latest three-day tracking poll, Kerry gained two percentage points to 24 percent, with Howard Dean and Richard Gephardt each dropped two points to 19 percent. John Edwards is holding steady at 17 percent. "Any one of the four can win this one," pollster John Zogby said.

Reports are that lots of undecided voters are showing up at all of the candidates’ visits. Clearly Iowa Caucuses could see a very large turnout and the buyers are hot to decide.

It will be interesting to see how well the old industrial unions deliver for Gephardt. They are in the fight of their life to maintain top influence over the service unions, who have endorsed Howard Dean. How well they perform in the Iowa contest has great consequences for them within the union movement.

Kerry continues to surprise and impress people with his late push to the front of what is a statistical dead even race within polling margins of error. Iowa’s First Lady Christie Vilsack seems to be providing a flood of women joining the Kerry campaign. And Kerry’s personal performance seems to be catching on with some voters. He is giving 20-minute stump speeches that focuses on issues -- corporate responsibility, foreign policy, taxes and health care. He verbally slaps around President Bush and does not say a word about any of his Democratic opponents. His close is:

"As Democrats, we cannot just offer anger," he said. "We've got to offer solutions." He ends by urging people to caucus for him and to "go there not just to send a message, but to send America a president."

A big part of the issue in campaigning is how the Democrats run against Bush. If a candidate goes to the middle, they will depress their base vote turnout. President Bush’s political advisor Karl Rove complained about the millions of Christian Right that sat out the last election, for example. The debate at hand in the Democrat Party right now is the core of the question of electability among Democrat candidates. Here is what the Post quotes Dean’s campaign manager Joe Trippi saying:

In an interview, Trippi said, "The established way is to go after the middle, even if it means depressing your base." He said that swing voters will look at large issues -- the war and the budget -- but that policy positions are secondary to the larger mood and promise Dean conveys.  (1/16/2004)

Is Dean electable?

Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin is doing the warm up as Howard Dean continues to tour Iowa. “In my adult lifetime I have never seen anyone energize and bring people into this party as much as Howard Dean has done in the last year,” Harkin says in introducing Dean. Harkin’s efforts are full blown and could provide some tilt into a Dean campaign that has faltered of late. However, Dean’s organization supplemented by Harkin has got to be a daunting picture for his opponents.

Dean’s electability continues to be the central issue that dogs him. Dean for his part asserts that he is the only one who can beat Bush. The Washington Post carries a couple of stories that explore the question:

The question haunting Dean, raised in various ways by all his main rivals in recent days, is whether he stands any chance of exerting appeal beyond core Democrats who share his strong opposition to the Iraq war and his liberal social views, and who raise their fists in agreement with his biting attacks on Bush.

The LA Times reports on how the insider endorsements may have cooled some of the ardor for Dean and now he is going back to his ‘running against Washington’ message:

But privately, even some Dean advisors agree that his backing from Gore and the others has blurred his appeal to supporters — one reason that Dean this week, in both his television advertising and stump speeches, has recharged his attacks on "Washington Democrats." (1/16/2004)

  • "This is the wildest, most intriguing and certainly the potentially closest finish in Iowa I've ever seen," Dean pollster Paul Maslin said.

  • "Howard Dean asleep is better than George Bush awoke," Sharpton said on CBS's "The Late Late Show with Craig Kilborn." The taped interview will air Monday night.

  • "A race rooted mainly in attacking the president may not take Dean far enough. Voters want someone who's been through the fire. They care about character. They want to know the evolution of the man, even if it's a myth," comments NY Times op-ed Maureen Dowd after not getting a scheduled call from Howard Dean.

  • "You know why I am wearing a sweater is because Tom Harkin is wearing a sweater and Tom Harkin doesn't like dressing up in a coat and a tie, and when you have Tom Harkin taking you around you wear what Tom Harkin is more comfortable with," said Howard Dean regarding changes in dress code.

  • "Things are going well. This is all down to the last 72 hours -- it's just who gets their votes out. I've just been calling around to county chairs and they're pretty optimistic that we're going to win. It's all who's committed -- whose followers are committed, whose followers are going to go. This is also about a whole lot of followers that can't be polled," Howard Dean said.

  • "I believe that America needs to stand up to George Bush and get corporate interests out of Washington," Dean said. "John [Edwards] is a good guy, but he's from Washington."

  • "This is a race to lock up the nomination before Howard's flaws emerge, before there are cracks in the facade. Well, guess what? They've come into full view," said Garrison Nelson, professor of political science at the University of Vermont, who has known Dean since 1980 and has clashed with him on occasion.

  • “We were kind of waltzing along and it was too easy,” said former Iowa Congressman David Nagle, a Dean backer who helped put Iowa’s caucuses on the political map as state Democrat Chairman. “If he’s going to be President, he’s going to face many tests. And this is a good one.”

  • “I was leaning Dean until a few days ago,” Karen Illingworth of Newton, Iowa, told canvassers for rival Dick Gephardt when they knocked on her door on a cold night this week. “I don’t like it when he says one thing one day and then is forced to say, ‘Well, I really didn’t mean that.’”  (1/17/2004)

t’s a wild race

"I think its organization," Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack said Friday in an interview with The Des Moines Register. "But even more than that, it's the sophistication of the people at the caucuses to persuade uncommitted Democrats."

Four candidates are bunched at the top in the first Democrat Presidential contest in Iowa. The campaigns that built solid staffs and recruited volunteers now have the best opportunity of gaining the advantage over their opponents.

Des Moines has become the “Spin City” of the world. This is the time of playing the expectations spin game. In restaurants all over Des Moines, senior Gephardt, Kerry, Dean, and Edwards campaign officials dined with major league reporters to spin the media on what to think about their candidate’s performance in the Iowa Caucuses. The goal is to convince reporters and pundits that their candidate is going to do terrible and if they do better than that then their candidate is clearly the one with the momentum coming out of Iowa. The buzzwords they’re trying hardest to plant in reporters’ minds are: ‘strong third’ or ‘strong fourth’ and ‘momentum.’

Momentum and lower expectations are diametrically opposed to each other. The NY Times has story about momentum:

"It is kind of a double-edged sword," said Mr. Bartels, the Princeton professor. "On the one hand, you want to build up expectations. But you don't want to build them up so high that come caucus night, people are disappointed."

Tonight on the 10:00 news the last Des Moines Register Iowa Poll numbers will be reported. Its meaning will be much debated. With the level of intensity and organization on the ground, Monday night will be the only thing that really counts from here on in.

This is also the time of last minute attacks by mail and missteps by candidates. A past quote by Sen. John Kerry is causing that campaign a bit of concern. Kerry made some comments about reducing the Department of Agriculture during the time of Al Gore’s Reinvent Government Commission:

"Get rid of the Agriculture Department, or at least render it three-quarters the size it is today," the Democratic presidential candidate said in a story published in the Worcester (Mass.) Telegram & Gazette in 1996.

The Kerry campaign response was quick:

"Then, as now, John Kerry supports eliminating waste, fraud and abuse and creating an Agriculture Department that works better for farmers," Kerry spokeswoman Stephanie Cutter said Friday.

Senator Tom Harkin of Iowa, who has endorsed Howard Dean, brought the charges against Kerry without directly naming him. Dean aides later sought out reporters to make sure they knew Mr. Harkin was referring to Mr. Kerry, whom they also faulted for voting with Republicans in favor of an amendment to the 1996 farm bill that would have phased out federal farm supports over seven years. This new approach by Dean’s campaign was coordinated between himself and Dick Gephardt as both quit firing at each other and took aim at Kerry and Edwards. Dean and Gephardt have pulled their attack ads against each other off the air. But don’t expect the nasty things they are mailing into caucus attendees’ homes to be pulled…

The NY Times

 covers this new approach from Dean and Gephardt, and the NY Times covers Gephardt’s new approach to his stump speech:

But as the Iowa caucuses near, Mr. Gephardt has turned up the fire on a stump speech that once conveyed more plain-spoken sincerity than flash or flair. Locked in a four-way battle for Iowa caucus voters, Mr. Gephardt is working hard to engage his audience.

The Des Moines Register points out in their caucus coverage that Kerry’s statement is an exaggeration:

Kerry's claim that there were more bureaucrats than farmers was a bit of an overstatement. The USDA, which has 110,000 employees, counted more than 1.9 million farms in its 1997 census.

Kerry’s statement also required Iowa Secretary of Agriculture Patty Judge to come to Kerry’s defense:

"I would never support a candidate for president of the United States who would harm Iowa's family farmers," she said in a prepared statement. "There is certainly nothing wrong in calling for government accountability. . . . He showed his leadership when he called for an overhaul of the Agriculture Department, and he will show leadership as president to continue to fight for family farmers."

Kerry continues to try to bring new participants to the caucuses by focusing on Iowa’s veterans. Former Georgia Senator Max Cleland, an amputee veteran of Vietnam, was in Sioux City drumming up support and enthusiasm with fellow vets:

"There is only one man who could get me to leave the warm climate of Georgia for the cold of Iowa in January. That person is John Kerry," Cleland said.

Gephardt is as confident as anyone. His campaign has assembled with union support -- the best traditional organization in the state’s history. "This has been an organizational force in the state that has never been seen before by anybody, Democrats or Republicans," claimed Gephardt campaign spokesman Bill Burton. "It's going to be remembered for a long time."

Edwards remains hopeful about his campaign. "This is like night and day. I'd have events like this a month ago, and we'd have 40 to 50 people. Now you can't get people into the room. It's something to see," Edwards told reporters as he prepared to leave for Council Bluffs for another six rallies fitted into the day. Edwards also believes that his organization is up to the task of converting this new enthusiasm for his candidacy into caucus delegates.

Dean has been losing support daily according to many tracking polls. The race can’t end soon enough for his campaign. They are still banking on the outside volunteers and the government and service sector unions pulling him through organizationally. The Washington Post and the Boston Globe offers a story about how Dean is off his pace. And the question is, will Dean’s newcomers show up Monday night and know how to beg and barter for delegates?

In a typical ‘look who’s supporting Dean now’ moment, Dean received the endorsement of rock singer Joan Jett who performed several of her hit songs to a packed crowd at Java Joes Coffeehouse at 214 Fourth St. in Des Moines. The songs she performed included "Bad Reputation" and "I Hate Myself for Loving You," which may not have been the best of themes considering Dean’s record of late…

Campaign manager Joe Trippi said on CNN that the campaign had budgeted $20,000 a month for travel expenses for Carol Moseley Braun and a staff aide in Braun’s new role as a surrogate for Dean in future state contests. He denied charges that the campaign was paying Braun a salary. Trippi also said there was no deal made to retire her campaign debt. He stated a "huge unity dinner" would be held after the nomination is decided to pay off the debts of unsuccessful contenders.

Dean’s authenticity and electability is called into question in an upcoming Sunday Post article:

But in our love affair with so-called reality entertainment, we don't dwell on the fact that the "reality" in reality TV is really just an affectation, and the shows are theatrical productions like any other. Melanie, a cast member of the British version of "Big Brother," once said of that show: "We were manipulated into stereotypes. That wasn't me, it was a caricature of me. . . . The power of the production is incredible. It's not real. Don't be fooled!" The current season of "The Real World" features a group of almost impossibly good-looking people in the same house with copious amounts of alcohol, a hot tub and little to do other than flirt.

The NY Times reports on how Dean’s campaign’s coziness with the press has gone out the window:

…during a series of conversations with ABC News last weekend, Dr. Dean's advisers threatened to take away the network's seat on the campaign plane if ABC went forward with plans to report that a Vermont state trooper who Dr. Dean once called "a wonderful parent" turned out to be a wife abuser.  (1/17/2004)

  • "He called me on the phone and said he'd like to worship with me," President Carter explained. "I did not invite him, but I'm glad he came."

  • "I made an announcement in advance that I'm not going to endorse any particular candidate, but I have been particularly grateful at the courageous and outspoken posture and position that Governor Dean has taken from the very beginning," President Carter said

  • "For those who may be wondering, my name is Judy Dean," she began. "I wanted to come here today and to say thank you to the people of Iowa for being so kind and gracious to my husband, Howard Dean."

  • "You are not meant to be the servants of big corporations and businesses… The government is supposed to work for us," Howard Dean said.

  • "On Jan. 20, 2005, it's not me that's going to the White House… It's YOU that's going to the White House," Howard Dean said. (1/19/2004)

The final hours

There are charter planes in Des Moines, Iowa, about to be fueled and ready to go tonight so they can land at about 3 am in New Hampshire where there will be rallies for the candidates continuing on there. Those rallies will move the Presidential dateline to the Granite state on Tuesday.  The question is, what kind of a tail wind will they be taking out of Iowa and into the rest of the race for President? The answer to that question happens tonight as the nation -- and the world -- waits to see who shows up at the Iowa caucuses in a contest that depends on the dedication and sophistication of the candidates’ organizations to harness turnout.

Demographics appear to be breaking along age and sex in the Iowa Caucuses. Men are stronger supporters of Howard Dean and Rep. Dick Gephardt. Women are more likely supporters of Senators John Kerry and John Edwards. Young voters are the important factor in the Dean campaign. Rural voters are likely to break more favorably for Edwards and Gephardt. Gephardt’s first campaign commercial in Iowa nearly nine months ago was directed at farmers. The bulk of Iowa’s unions are split between the service unions for Dean and the industrial unions for Gephardt.

A quote in an LA Times story covering the tightness of the race spells out the demographic slicing of the Iowa Caucus attendees:

"One way or another, all four are connecting with an element of the electorate," said Stuart Rothenberg, a Washington campaign analyst. "At the moment, each of those slices of the electorate are roughly the same size."

The lead lines in the story that can be written ahead of time are:

* The once ‘last gasp’ of the Kerry campaign has been transformed into a viable campaign, capable of living to fight another day and on into at least the Feb. 3rd round of states.

* Edwards finally did get traction and nice guys can have a place in American politics. He must win S. Carolina and nearly every other Southern state. He needs to do this in order to keep his regional appeal and his claim he can beat Bush because he can deliver five Southern states alive.

* Dean’s coronation is on hold, but he is still the most likely candidate to pull the Arthurian sword from the stone and become the presumptive nominee to do battle against President Bush. This is because of organization and money. We all need to see what happens with Dean’s fundraising following Iowa.

* This will be the last time that Dennis ‘Get the U.N. in and the U.S. out’ Kucinich will be given any serious consideration by serious political organizations and media. That is except for when it comes to gathering in stray delegates to win the nomination for the Presidency. His voice will still be heard as representing the liberal wing of the liberal Democratic Party.

Story lines that must wait are:

* Is Gephardt still alive and desperate for money, or is he out of the race?

* How badly was Dean hurt by the bunching of the candidates in their finishes on Caucus night, and how badly is his shoot from the lip on Carter going to hurt him? (Dean is quoted as saying Carter invited him and Carter is quoted as saying Dean invited himself and why don’t the other candidates come on down, too.)

Whatever the outcome, Iowa has been witness to a new level of campaigning that will transform all future campaigns for President. The attacks have been mean and have caused those who promulgated them -- Dean and Gephardt -- to go down in the standings and move a disproportionate number of the uncommitted women to the other two candidates (Kerry and Edwards) in the top tier of the field.

As for the Iowa caucuses, everything remains up for grabs and the question is: Who is going to show up -- and how many. If the number of caucus goers rises above 125,000 attendance, it will not be good for Gephardt, who is looking to turnout about 35,000. Caucus goers who could change their candidate support are at 47 percent in the poll numbers. And there is an uncalculated number of folks who can’t even be polled.  (1/19/2004)

Howard Dean

Howard Dean, who was at 20 percent in the latest poll, brought the heat back up on his attacks of President Bush, calling Bush's term in the White House the "borrow-and-spend, credit-card presidency," Dean once again accused the president of being beholden to big corporations and special interests. Dean also came back to the U.S. invasion of Iraq, saying that as commander in chief of the U.S. military, he would never send troops into a foreign country without first telling Americans the truth.

Dean traveled to Plaines, Georgia, where he received the closest thing to an endorsement that President Jimmy Carter is likely to give prior to a candidate winning the nomination.

The two men joined worshippers at the 131-member Marantha Baptist Church, where Carter teaches Sunday school most weeks, and afterward the former president introduced Dean as "my friend, our visitor and a fellow Christian."

"I made an announcement in advance that I'm not going to endorse any particular candidate, but I have been particularly grateful at the courageous and outspoken posture and position that Governor Dean has taken from the very beginning," Carter said during their eight-minute appearance together after the Sunday services.

The big surprise was Judy Dean on the campaign trail, at Davenport, Cedar Rapids, and Iowa City.

"For those who may be wondering, my name is Judy Dean," she began. "I wanted to come here today and to say thank you to the people of Iowa for being so kind and gracious to my husband, Howard Dean," Judy said while campaigning in Iowa for her husband.

The Boston Globe does the best write up on Judy’s appearance in Iowa.  (1/19/2004)

Unions Lose

The big losers in the Iowa Caucuses were the nation’s unions. The biggest losers were the industrial unions who had endorsed Rep. Dick Gephardt -- of the 21 unions who had endorsed Gephardt, they represented some 96,000 members in Iowa. Gephardt came in at a mere 11 percent of the delegates out of over 120,000 Iowans who attended the Caucuses. The old industrial unions are no more. They cannot deliver even 10 percent of their members to their candidate of choice.

Gephardt may have been too much of the past and caucus attendees’ fears of not sparking enough enthusiasm for his campaign probably hurt. However, no other candidate delivered on the industrial unions’ issues and unions were greatly indebted to Gephardt for his long years of service. They did not deliver on their debt or for their own sake.

The defeat is all the worse because national union presidents were in Iowa for days before the caucuses working to create, in their words, “the most awesome organizational effort Iowa has ever seen.”

The big news from Gephardt’s camp now will be who he endorses. It will be interesting to see if he consults with his union friends before he throws his weight behind a candidate. Watch Edwards because of Gephardt’s parting Iowa compliments towards him.

The other interesting thing to watch is where Gephardt’s super delegates go. He had the second most delegates. Look for Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin, Al Gore, and Bill Bradley to begin working the phones to those delegates to stop the erosion. Remember -- Dean still has the most delegates for now.

The service unions faired only slightly better in their pick of Dean. AFSME and CEIU provided the professional basis for many of Dean’s volunteers in Iowa. Dean’s 18 percent showing was well behind the two front runners. It is an embarrassing finish for Dean and the unions who backed him. Sen. John Kerry at 38 percent more than doubled Dean’s showing and the second place finisher Sen. John Edwards at 32 percent almost doubled Dean as well.

There is no doubt that Dean is not done yet. However, there are grave doubts this morning as to whether Dean will be successful. Before Iowa, Dean appeared on an unstoppable track to the nomination. Now, the pile of money sitting in his account is the only thing keeping him from the fate that has befallen Gephardt.

Dean has received more than a body blow. He has been knocked to the mat. In picking himself up last night, his speech to the faithful was part raging bull, part fiery preacher. It was not a sight that inspired confidence or did anything to assuage American’s fears that he is too angry.

Dean’s blog was a buzz last night. It did not appear that the campaign true believers have come to the realization that the difference between a minority position and a majority position takes more than evangelizing -- it takes the forging of uneasy alliances with those who find it prudent to achieve the same goal.

Dean will have to remake his campaign in order to be successful. However, the remaking of his campaign may destroy the very nature of his insurgency and therefore, destroy his campaign.

Kerry and Edwards didn’t get a tail wind out of Iowa. Instead, they are riding rockets into New Hampshire. The question will be whether they can control the direction of their campaign boost in order to get the most good from their Iowa boost.

Kerry acknowledged that he has come back from the abyss in his victory speech last night: “Not so long ago, this campaign was written off… You stood with me," Kerry told supporters, "so that we can take on George Bush and the special interests and literally give America back its future and its soul."

Wesley Clark was quick to challenge Kerry and fired the first shot before Kerry arrived in New Hampshire. "He's got military background, but nobody in this race has got the kind of background I've got," said Clark.

Edwards’ campaign is energized and for the first time is being taken seriously. Upon landing in New Hampshire last night Edwards was greeted by a jubilant crowd. "Can you feel it? The people of New Hampshire are going to feel it a week from tonight. We're going to sweep across the country and we're going to do it without the negative politics of cynicism," said Edwards.

The Associated Press offers this analysis:

Ultimately, however, Iowans backed a candidate who voted in favor of Bush's decision to go to war — but criticizes the president's prosecution of it — and who wants to eliminate the Bush tax cuts going to the richest Americans, but keep the rest of the tax-cut package.

The other key factor that spurred Kerry and Edwards ahead was the belief that they have a good chance of beating President Bush. The poll numbers of those who thought Dean could beat Bush were much lower than those who thought Kerry or Edwards could.

Look for Edwards to emphasize that the South is his backyard and that no Democrat has won the White House without winning five Southern states. This, of course, puts him in a big showdown with Wesley Clark in South Carolina on Feb. 3.

The balance of time, organization and message between the Jan. 27th New Hampshire race and the Feb. 3rd round of states will be especially critical to these three. Dean’s money and radical movement can keep him in the race, but of these three the only thing that will suffice is that they are the Dean alternative. That cannot be all three of them. In the end, there can be only one.

Who’s next?

The nomination process will turn to the real focus of ‘who gets knocked off next?’ It is a foregone conclusion that Sen. Joe Lieberman’s campaign is the walking dead. The fight will be between Kerry, Edwards and Clark. Clark will, by the very nature of Kerry and Edwards’ support, have to fight a two-front campaign. Clark has the advantage of timing -- New Hampshire is Jan. 27 and South Carolina is Feb. 3. This will enable him to hold off on South Carolina until after New Hampshire, where Kerry has the regional advantage. But timing will also enable Edwards to concentrate on South Carolina -- his must win state -- more heavily. It is a deadly triangle that will witness the eventual demise of one of the three.

Look for Clark’s black ops communication director Chris Lehane to begin to put out dirt on Kerry and Edwards around Thursday and Friday of this week. The purpose is to put some drag on their Iowa boost… even more than the President’s State of the Union Message tonight. Nothing like putting a campaign on the defensive…

Speaking of the State of the Union, look for the Democrat candidates to remind the American public what President Bush said in last year’s State of the Union: that Iraq of possessed all manner of dangerous weapons, which are yet to be found. Bush also suggested a Saddam link to al Qaeda, which has since been disavowed. There will be even more Democratic appeals for an independent commission to investigate the development and use of intelligence related to Iraq. There are also some who hope that it would lead to impeachment proceedings.

Speaking of defensive, Clark’s many missteps and contradictions are bound to come out much more during the run-up to the New Hampshire Primary.

As Bob Dole said, “Politics isn’t bean-bag.”  (1/20/2004)

Poll watching

A New Hampshire television poll shows:

Released at 6p.m. Tuesday the poll was taken from Jan. 17-19. It has a margin of error of +/-5 percent.

Dean 33

Kerry 24

Clark 18

Edwards 8

Lieberman 5

Kucinich 3

Gephardt 3

Sharpton 0

Undecided 6

Check out the Washington Posts’ breakdown of Iowa Caucus attendees.  (1/21/2004)

Organization in S. Carolina

The State offers a view of the various campaigns organizational strength in S. Carolina. Sen. John Kerry is in a mad dash to bring his staff back from Iowa to S. Carolina:

WESLEY CLARK

• Volunteers — 2,000

• Paid staff — 40

• Offices — Columbia, Orangeburg, Charleston, Greenville, Florence

• Endorsements — More than 40

HOWARD DEAN

• Volunteers — More than 350

• Paid staff — More than 50

• Offices — Columbia (2), Charleston, Greenville, Orangeburg, Florence

• Endorsements — 25

JOHN EDWARDS

• Volunteers — 400

• Paid staff — 9

• Offices — Columbia, North Charleston, Greenville, Florence

• Endorsements — More than 75

JOHN KERRY

• Volunteers — 321

• Paid staff — 7

• Offices — Columbia, Charleston

• Endorsements — More than 30

DENNIS KUCINICH

• Volunteers — 210

• Paid staff — None

• Offices — Columbia

• Endorsements — About 10

JOE LIEBERMAN

• Volunteers — 500

• Paid staff — 8

• Offices — Columbia, Charleston, Greenville

• Endorsements — About 60

AL SHARPTON

• Volunteers — About 200

• Paid staff — 4

• Offices — Columbia, Spartanburg, Florence (2)

• Endorsements — Campaign could not provide     (1/21/2004)

  • "The State of the Union may look rosy from the White House balcony or the suites of George Bush's wealthiest donors, but hardworking Americans will see through this president's effort to wrap his radical agenda with a compassionate ribbon," said Howard Dean.

  • "You get three tickets out of Iowa," said Dean campaign manager Joe Trippi. "We got one of them. It's not the one I would have wanted, but I'll take it."  (1/21/2004)

State of the campaigns

One day after the Iowa Caucuses President Bush had his say to the nation in the traditional State of the Union Message. The divided and partisan nature of this campaign year was evident in the split between Democrats’ and Republicans’ reactions to the speech -- Democrats were frequently visible in their lack of applause to the President’s speech.

In New Hampshire according to New Hampshire Politics.com the Democrats were unanimous in their Bush bashing.

Clark watched the State of the Union with about 850 people at the Palace Theater.

Many in the audience booed at the first camera shots of Vice President Dick Cheney and Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld. They remained silent during President Bush's entrance, though hissed at Bush's call to renew the USA Patriot Act.

Following the President’s speech, Clark was interviewed by Tom Brokaw. When Clark went into a tirade about the war in Iraq, Brokaw asked about Clark’s initial support for the war. Clark then interrupted Brokaw several times, insisting he never supported the war – even though last midterm election Clark campaigned for a Democrat Congressional candidate and urged her to support the war resolution that was then before congress.

Clark said, "The sad fact is that today, two years after he coined the term, we've got a new axis of evil. It's one our President himself has created. It's an axis of fiscal policies that threaten our future... foreign policies that threaten our security... and domestic policies that put families dead last. Call it the Bush axis of evil."

Sen. John Edwards continued in his class warfare attack on the President:

"Tonight, the president said that 'the state of our Union is confident and strong.' The first question you and I need to ask is, 'Which union Mr. President.' His America - the country where the Washington lobbyists, special interests and his CEO friends get what they want, when they want it-is doing just fine. But in our America, the state of working Americans is a struggle every single day..."

"What this president fails to understand is that we still live in two different Americas," Edwards said in a released statement.

"Instead of proposing ideas that would help heal our great divides," the North Carolina senator said, "he is dividing us even further and believes that compassionate language and empty slogans will make working Americans forget the burdens they face every day."

Sen. John Kerry continued on the theme of attacking special interests and privilege:

"Paul O'Neill is right because this president only hears the special interests and lobbyists," Kerry's statement read. "He doesn't see what's happening in our economy, in the workplace and to families everywhere."

"I'm running for president because it's time we put country over campaign contributions," he said.

Howard Dean offered the following statement:

"George Bush's empty proposals do nothing to address the real problems facing working Americans--problems his presidency has only made worse. On creating jobs, providing health care, and educating our children, I wish this President could learn from our example in Vermont, where we delivered real results for families.

"The State of the Union may look rosy from the White House balcony or the suites of George Bush's wealthiest donors. But hard-working Americans will see through this President's effort to wrap his radical agenda with a compassionate ribbon.

"This week in New Hampshire, and as the campaign moves ahead, I look forward to debating with my opponents about who has stood up to George Bush on the issues that matter. About who has actually delivered results for people. About who has the experience and strength to bring real change for American families," said Dean.

Kucinich offered the following statement:

"I actually thought it didn't have that much content. He spent a lot of time talking about terror. And see, it's kind of instructive. He can spend time talking about that and if you spend a lot of time talking about that you don't have to explain why America's lost 3 million manufacturing jobs. You don't have to explain why unemployment, while it hovers around 6 percent it doesn't really reflect the massive unemployment that exists in this country from people who have stopped looking for work. You don't have to explain why 43 million Americans don't have any health insurance at all. So just talk about terror and you don't have to talk about anything else."  (1/21/2004)

Dean’s passion

America and political pundits continued to react to Howard Dean’s antics Monday night when he behaved like an angry possessed individual as he addressed his supporters in Des Moines following his third place showing in the Iowa Caucuses. The Manchester Union Leader reported Dean was more subdued in his appearances on Tuesday in New Hampshire:

On the first day of the rest of his political life, Howard Dean chose a new diet yesterday. He replaced the red meat with plain, white toast.

"If he wanted to create a moment no one would ever forget, he succeeded," said Christine Iverson of the Republican National Committee yesterday.

"People get uncomfortable if they perceive a leader is out of control. The only president who really got away with it was Teddy Roosevelt," said Bruce Buchanan, a presidential historian at the University of Texas.

The New York Daily News gots psychology experts to weigh in on Dean's speech:

Dean was casting himself as the underdog in New Hampshire:

“We spent a long time as the supposed front-runner and we paid the price that front-runners pay,” Dean said. “It’s a pleasure to come to New Hampshire not as a front-runner,” believing that strict media scrutiny will now be focused elsewhere.

Dean, who appreciates his adoring ‘Deanies’, was heckled as he spoke at the New Hampshire Technical Institute in Concord. When he was interrupted for a second time, Dean led his supporters in a rousing rendition of the Star Spangled Banner to drown them out. The hecklers were waving the Confederate flag.

In a Boston Globe story Dean defended his incredible antics in Iowa:

The former Vermont governor said he wanted to show his appreciation to his Iowa volunteers. "I think that I owed them the reason that they came to this campaign, which was passion," Dean said. Later, in Concord, Dean responded to hecklers by breaking into song, and his supporters joined him in singing "The Star-Spangled Banner."

The Washington Times comments on Dean’s new subdued approach:

"Today, I am going to give a different kind of speech," Mr. Dean told supporters. "Those of you who came here intending to be lifted by ... a lot of red-meat rhetoric are going to be a little disappointed."  (1/21/2004)

  • “I’m not a perfect person,” Dean said. “I think a lot of people have had fun at my expense over the Iowa hooting and hollering.”

  • “I wanted to say to Gov. Dean, don’t be hard on yourself about the hootering and hollering,” the Rev. Al Sharpton said. “If I spent the money you did and got 18 percent, I’d still be hollering to Iowa. Don’t worry about it, Howard.”

  • "He's in a hole, there's no doubt about it," Harkin said of Dean, who is now locked in a struggle to win the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday. "But he's been beat up before. The one thing I've admired about Dr. Dean is that he's resilient. He's getting beat up and he's coming back," Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin said.

  • "I just can't believe the people of New Hampshire are going to say because of one speech, I cannot support this guy," said Harkin. "So he made a mistake, all right? So he made a mistake," Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin said.

  • "We went through six weeks of getting battered," said Joe Trippi, Dean's campaign manager. "Attack, respond, attack, respond, attack, respond. That's what happens when you become a frontrunner. That's what happened to Bill Clinton in 1991."

  • "[He] really provided health care to people in his state, really did balance those budgets," Joe Trippi said. "He really did stand up against the war when no one else would. I don't believe that New Hampshire is going to let 15 second of video tape erase it."

  • "Didn't you realize you were speaking to the country and maybe the world?" Ron Fournier of the Associated Press asked Howard Dean about his Iowa speech.

  • "I thought in context it would be fine," Dean said.

  • "It's hard to hit those high notes when you don't have any voice left," Dean said.

  • Jay Leno said about Howard Dean that, “It's a bad sign in politics when your speech ends with your aides shooting you with a tranquilizer gun.”

  • “I think Alan Greenspan has become too political. If he lacks the political courage to criticize the deficits, if he was foolish enough -- and he's not a foolish man -- to support the outrageous tax cuts that George Bush put through, then he has become too political and we need a new chairman of the Federal Reserve," Dean said in response to a question from an audience at a town hall meeting in Londonderry.

  • [Dean] "could fall through the floor, or he could be poised for a Clinton-like finish here," Ron Brownstein of the Los Angeles Times said. "The difference is most candidates have not blown themselves up on national television."

  • "My God, to suggest that responsible people, the president of the United States, would have known about that before the fact and not done anything about it, it is just, it's just, it's awful," Sec. Of State Colin Powell said about Howard Dean’s accusation that Bush knew about 9-11 in advance. "It's outrageous."  (1/23/2004)

NH Debate

The Manchester Union Leader has as part of its New Hampshire debate coverage a fact-check concerning some of the things that were said by the Democratic presidential candidates. And low and behold… some of the statements made during the debate do not line up with the facts. One of those mis-statements was made by Sen. John Edwards, complaining about President Clinton’s signing of the defense of family act:

Sen. John Edwards, voicing his objections to the Defense of Marriage Act signed by President Clinton in 1996, said it "took away the power of states ... to be able to do what they chose to do" about gay civil unions." He said, "I think these are decisions that the states should have the power to make."

States have that option under the law. The act allows states to refuse to honor same-sex unions performed outside their boundaries, but also lets them legalize the unions if they want. It specifies that such unions would not be recognized by the federal government.

Another mis-statement was made by Wesley Clark, when asked when it was that he knew he was a Democrat:

"I voted for Bill Clinton and Al Gore," the retired general said in a Democratic presidential debate Thursday, then stopped there. He also has said previously that he voted for Republicans including Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan and the first George Bush.

Clark was also asked about being a superhuman President who would stop all future 9-11 attacks:

"…I never used the word 'guarantee,’" he said.

However, here’s the actual quote of Clark on the subject:

"If I'm president of the United States, I'm going to take care of the American people," Clark was quoted by the Concord Monitor in New Hampshire earlier this month. "We are not going to have one of these incidents."

Maybe Clark just sort of means it… kind of…

The Leader also accuses Sen. John Kerry of demagogism on the issue of senior health care:

Kerry flatly accused President Bush of "pushing seniors off of Medicare into HMOs."

The new prescription drug program subsidizes costs for low-income patients and encourages private insurance companies to offer coverage for the elderly willing to opt out of traditional Medicare. Nothing in the law forces seniors off of Medicare.

Overall, the debate was notable for its lack of attacks upon each other and its focus of attacks on President Bush. One of the funniest moments came in an exchange from Al Sharpton commenting on Howard Dean’s statement about his hollering screaming speech in Iowa:

“I’m not a perfect person,” Dean said. “I think a lot of people have had fun at my expense over the Iowa hooting and hollering.”

“I wanted to say to Gov. Dean, don’t be hard on yourself about the hootering and hollering,” Sharpton said. “If I spent the money you did and got 18 percent, I’d still be hollering to Iowa. Don’t worry about it, Howard.”

“Thanks, reverend,” Dean replied.

Kerry is still having trouble with some New Hampshire voters regarding his vote to go to war. He has consistently offered the following statement to get voters to support him:

“If anybody in New Hampshire believes that John Kerry would have gone to war as President Bush had done, then they shouldn’t vote for me,” Kerry said.

There were no break-away performances by any of the candidates. Sen. Joe Lieberman offered a convincing performance that kept him outside of the rest of the liberal candidates seeking the nomination. There still are no convincing events that suggest that he will survive Tuesday’s election.

Clark failed to ignite the crowd and looks to be sagging in New Hampshire voters’ minds when pitted against John Kerry. In addition, Edwards might get a boost for just being himself.

"I think it's conceivable that Edwards might go up in the polls beyond Clark in a couple days as a result of his performance," Dean Spiliotes, visiting politics professor at St. Anselm College said. "Kerry seemed pretty even, and I think it's going to be reasonably tight between him and Dean," Spiliotes said.

In the spin room afterwards, the Kerry campaign tried to turn down expectations for Kerry according to New Hampshire Politics.com:

Billy Shaheen downplayed expectations for Sen. John Kerry in the debate spin room. Shaheen, the state chair of Kerry's campaign, said that he thinks Kerry is still an underdog, despite Kerry's Iowa victory and surge in the polls.

"Gov. Dean still has a great organization," Shaheen said. "He has a lot of people that committed to him and have not abandoned, and I think he'll be a tough competitor."

[For transcripts of the debate, use this link.]  (1/23/2004)

Poll watching

The latest MSNBC, Reuters, Zogby poll shows: Kerry 30%; Dean 22%; Clark 14%; Edwards 7%; and Lieberman 7%.

Negative campaigning

Peter Jennings tried to get Joe Lieberman to criticize Howard Dean and John Kerry, to which Lieberman replied, ‘nice try.’ Everyone was gun shy from the fallout from the negative campaigning in Iowa. Edwards is also riding a popular perception of being Mr. Nice. The American public cannot expect that negative campaigning will suddenly vanish from the political scene after Iowa. The reason is: negative campaigning works.

It has long been understood that not only does the recipient of negative campaigning go down in support, but those delivering the negative message about the opponent lose support as well. Howard Dean was attacked relentlessly by Rep. Dick Gephardt prior to the Iowa Caucuses. Both of these candidates watched their support erode as Senators John Kerry and John Edwards went up in support and eventually came in number one and two in Iowa.

The key to running in a multiple field is to stop your attacks with enough time to rebuild your positives -- something Gephardt failed to do.

The NY Times covers how the campaigns have changed their TV ads to not be the one who fails to switch in time to a positive ad.  (1/23/2004)

Dean’s performance

"Dean has to perform at that debate," said Andrew Smith of the University of New Hampshire, director of one of several tracking polls charting the movement underway there. "Dean has to turn it around to show that what happened in Iowa was an aberration."

Howard Dean is trying to turn his campaign around. He was on television in an interview with Diane Sawyer, and in the New Hampshire debate. He had two at bats and best indications are the faithful still believe but others still can’t remove the image of the howling Dean in Iowa from their memories. It still seems to be the speech that kills Dean’s hopes for the Presidency.

The only thing that could save Dean is the field he is running against. The truth is, Sen. John Edwards could become President Bush’s next nightmare.

The Washington Post reports on how the howling Dean speech continues to follow him:

When a candidate loses his footing, even fleeting moments seem to feed the larger narrative.

Thus it was that when Dean showed up at Lou's Restaurant in Hanover -- for the sort of event where he orders hot chocolate while 11 photographers behind the counter snap away -- the first customer he encountered was Marisa Kraus, holding a Bush-Cheney sticker.

"Governor Dean -- what about the scream?" she taunted.

"Tell us: was it cathartic?"

"It was great, it was cathartic, yahoo," Dean muttered sarcastically, moving on to the next table.

The performance of The Doctor and His Wife The Doctor on ABC News, Primetime with Diane Sawyer did not offer a breakthrough from the deathwatch that is taking place on his campaign. Dean did offer a moment of coming to his wife’s defense on her not being a part of the campaign, and that was Dean at his best:

There's really another side to this. I have women, my age, coming up to me in the campaign trail saying, "Thank God your wife is like that." We just got a bunch of letters at home saying "Thank God. Hallelujah. A woman who has her own career and doesn't get dragged around." … some people would say "Where has she been?" Other people would say "Thank heavens. A different kind of First Lady," Dean said.

Dean is still in trouble and it continues to not look good for him and his Deanies.  (1/23/2004)

Dean’s top ten

Following in the footsteps of Dick Gephardt, Howard Dean taped an appearance on Late Night with David Letterman in which he presented the Top 10 list. The subject of Dean's list was "Ways, I, Howard Dean, can turn things around."

10. Switch to decaf.

9. Unveil new slogan, "Vote for Dean and get one dollar off your next purchase at Blimpie."

8. Marry Rachel on the final episode of Friends.

7. Don't change a thing, it's going great.

6. Show a little more skin.

5. Go on American Idol and give them a taste of those pipes.

4. Start working out and speaking with an Austrian accent.

3. I can't give specifics yet, but it involves Ted Danson.

2. Fire the staffer who suggested I do this lousy Top 10 List instead of actually campaigning.

1. Oh, I don't know - maybe fewer crazy, red-faced rants.   (1/23/2004)

Embracing the monkey

Howard Dean issued the following statement on the Lunar New Year:

"Today is the beginning of the Lunar New Year. As millions of Chinese and Asian Americans across the country celebrate the start of a new year, I offer them my best wishes for a year of prosperity and hope.

"According to the Chinese calendar, this is the year 4702--the Year of the Monkey. The sign of the monkey is characterized by determination, innovation, and a never-give-up attitude. On this particular Lunar New Year, it is worth noting that 1776, the year our nation was born, was also a year of the monkey.

"A cornerstone of this campaign to take back our country is to bring new voters to the process. Asian Americans and Pacific Islanders are the fastest growing racial and ethnic populations in our country and an important base of our support, and ensuring that their voices are heard is critical to our political process. At this traditional time of change, we should unite to ensure a democracy that represents all people."

Governor Dean will be hosting a national Lunar New Year for America house party this Sunday in conjunction with Asian Americans and Pacific Islanders for Dean. For more information or to host a party, please visit: www.deanforamerica.com/lunarnewyear.   (1/23/2004)

Dean on Roe vs. Wade

Howard Dean issued the following statement today to mark the anniversary of Roe v. Wade:

"Thirty one years ago, the Supreme Court recognized that American women have a constitutional right to control their own bodies. But the right to choose hangs in the balance of the 2004 election. If George W. Bush gets to appoint even one anti-choice justice to the Court, the era of safe, legal abortion in the United States will end.

"As a family doctor, a Board Member of my local Planned Parenthood and Governor of Vermont, I have worked my entire adult life to promote women's health. If elected President I will defend the right to reproductive privacy and fight to keep politics out of medicine."  (1/23/2004)

  • "I thought he [Howard Dean] did what he had to do to stop the bloodletting and let the healing begin," said Donna Brazile, a Democratic strategist who is not affiliated with a campaign. "Now it's time to recapture his fire, go out there and charm his neighbors."   (1/24/2004)

Rally ‘round the Dean

Reports indicate Howard Dean has become a disciplined candidate. In 72 hours, he has been relentlessly on message, somewhat charming, less aggressive and very much in the zone for the first time in months. Reports indicate that Dean is feeling confident again and it is rubbing off on the crowds… or maybe the it’s the crowds that are picking him up.

Every event on the Dean schedule is packed -- more than 1,000 turned out in Keene to hear him speak. The Deanies are online and getting out their plastic (as in, credit cards) to go even further in debt to support of their candidate. It is reported that more people are signing up for Dean at his website than in a long time.

The NY Times offers a look at Dean giving the public his ultimate sales pitch:

"If you just want to change presidents, go to the polls on Tuesday and vote for whoever you want," Dr. Dean told about 100 people at the Lions Club in Londonderry just after 8 a.m. "But if you really want to change America, I ask for your vote. I think we need somebody outside the Washington game, somebody who just doesn't promise everything, somebody who's actually balanced budgets and delivered health care."  

The Nashua Telegraph Times offers a look at Dean’s hopeful perspective on New Hampshire:

“Four days is not a long time, but New Hampshire has done some things before that are unusual and different than what went on in Iowa. We’re out there fighting, and New Hampshire likes a fighter,’’ Dean said during a Telegraph interview in his campaign van.

The Telegraph Times reports that the Deanies are still blaming others for their problems:

“What passes as news is beholden to the corporate line as witnessed by the relentless replaying and distortion of the pep talk you gave the other night,’’ said Kathy Johnson, a former physician and current computer programmer.

The Dean campaign has pulled its ads in the Feb 3rd round. The NY Times reports they are still trying to figure out what to do. Why don’t they put it to a vote?

The campaign was still deliberating on Friday night whether to show a new commercial, shot after Dr. and Mrs. Dean sat for an interview with Diane Sawyer on ABC.

Dr. Dean's campaign officials said that in the new spot Mrs. Dean would laud her husband as a doctor and a father.

But officials said that they might not want to alter their current New Hampshire mix, which includes a recently added spot that shows Dr. Dean meeting last weekend with former President Jimmy Carter and ends with a prolonged shot of Dr. Dean smiling widely.

Or maybe if they just shout loud and long enough the public will believe what they believe… hey, didn’t Dean try that one already?  (1/24/2004)

  • "In terms of the dirty tricks, I think we are seeing some of those in the primaries. You get used to it," Howard Dean said. "It's not nice, it's not good for the democracy, but people do them."  (1/26/2004)"There is no question that the race has tightened up," pollster John Zogby said. "Dean stopped the bleeding in the middle of the week and he has slowly regained some of the support he had lost."

  • "Boy, that speech in Iowa was something else. Talk about shock and awe. Saddam Hussein felt so bad for Governor Dean that he offered him his hole," President Bush is reported to have joked at the Alfalfa Club gala.

  • "It's close and it's closing fast," Howard Dean said, accusing his rivals of smearing him in a shadowy phone-and-mail campaign. "I need your help because we have every intention of winning the New Hampshire primary."

  • "After I get done, Hillary will be president," Howard Dean said referring to his being elected two-terms.

  • "Everybody always makes the mistake of looking South," Kerry said, in response to a question about winning the region. "Al Gore proved he could have been president of the United States without winning one Southern state, including his own."  (1/26/2004)

NH Primary Analysis
 by Roger Wm. Hughes

Tomorrow’s results will once again knock candidates out of the race. At this point unless Clark improves his standing he will begin to bleed the resources needed to win the nomination. The big story is not the winners – it’s the losers who cannot continue.

Howard Dean

Talk about your nine lives, this Howard Dean is tapped into the mother-load of American political activism. Judy, Judy, Judy, you are the savior of the campaign. Since his wife has shown the softer side of Dean, he has been regaining the core of the anti-war voters once again. We will see tomorrow how that impacts actual voters.

After all, you have to question the judgment of a Democrat candidate who voted to go to war. Isn’t that right Kerry?

Dean message is that he is fiscally conservative, socially liberal and the one candidate willing to take tough stands. The message is specially coined for New Hampshire independent. It is part of a political makeover designed to get him past the ‘I have a Scream’ speech.

Of course Dean offered this message also:

"You can say that it's great that Saddam is gone and I'm sure that a lot of Iraqis feel it is great that Saddam is gone," said the former Vermont governor, an unflinching critic of the war against Iraq. "But a lot of them gave their lives. And their living standard is a whole lot worse now than it was before."  (1/26/2004)

Dean regarding phone calls

Karen Hicks, Dean For America's New Hampshire State Director, made the following statement:

"In recent days, our campaign has been hearing reports from New Hampshire voters that they are receiving:

* phone calls early in the morning and late at night:

* "robo calls" from soulless machines, not calls from considerate
people;

* calls claiming to originate from the Dean campaign but do not;

* and even harassing calls and bigoted messages.

Let me be very clear. The Dean campaign does not call New Hampshire homes before 8:30 am or after 8:30 pm. Our calls are made by respectful people, not droning machines. Our callers tell the truth.

We call on the other campaigns to make the same commitments.

We are grateful for the extraordinary engagement of New Hampshire's people in this race. But our campaign believes that everyone deserves some peace, some respect, and a truthful message."  (1/26/2004)

Poll watching

Sen. John Kerry leads Howard Dean 31 percent to 28 percent In New Hampshire in the newest poll. Sen. John Edwards jumped three points to narrowly trail Wesley Clark for third place, 13 percent to 12 percent. Sen. Joe Lieberman remains static at 9 percent.  (1/26/2004)

  • "People know that we're going to stand up for them. This really is a campaign to stand up for ordinary Americans," Howard Dean said. "We got some momentum back in the campaign, but it's going to take a long time to get back the momentum we had as front-runner status."

  • "We'll see if John Kerry can take the number of body blows that Howard Dean did and still be standing," Dean spokeswoman Tricia Enright said.

  • "I think the only way we're going to beat George Bush is for someone to come from outside Washington," Dean said.

  • "We really are going to win this nomination, aren't we?" Dean said. "The people of New Hampshire have allowed our campaign to regain its momentum, and I am very grateful. The people of New Hampshire have allowed all of you to hope again that we're going to have real change in America."

  • Kerry ran best among voters who put the highest priority on leadership and political experience. Dean defeated Kerry among voters who placed the highest priority on a candidate who would offer new ideas and bring about the greatest change.  -- writes Ronald Brownstein of the LA Times.  (1/28/2004)

IPW Analysis: Money and organization

It is all about money and organization now. Candidates will hardly be able to get to states holding elections and caucuses more than twice. The question is, who can play in all of the states? And it looks like the answer is, Howard Dean will. How many states and how much money Sen. John Kerry can pony up will be a big challenge.

Spending the money can be a problem.

For example if you wanted to put together three new TV ads -- one each for the Midwest, South, and another for the Southwest -- it would require going to these states with the candidate, putting together the taping crew, editing the tapes, copying, shipping to the stations, paying in advance and signing the forms. It is about money and organization.

The following states are up next Tuesday:

Feb. 3, 2004: Delaware presidential primary

Feb. 3, 2004: South Carolina Democratic presidential primary

Feb. 3, 2004: Missouri presidential primary

Feb. 3, 2004: Arizona presidential primary

Feb. 3, 2004: New Mexico Democratic caucuses

Feb. 3, 2004: Virginia GOP caucuses

Feb. 3, 2004: Oklahoma presidential primary

Feb. 3, 2004: North Dakota Democratic caucuses

There was discussion in the Dean camp about not fighting the war on all fronts. Advisers urged Dean to concentrate on a few states to conserve resources. But he vetoed the strategy, insisting his campaign is muscular enough to compete nationally according to the Associated Press:

In an interview with the Associated Press, Dean acknowledged that aides urged him to skip South Carolina. "There was some discussion about it," he said. "I never gave it any thought."

Dean raised more than $200,000 in the 24 hours before the primary, but has been spending money just as fast — and he will keep up the pricey pace with his new strategy.  (1/28/2004)

Kerry & Dean in the Battle of the States

Kerry is going to Missouri first and John Norris, who ran Iowa next door, is heading there on Kerry’s behalf as well. Kerry has also picked up good Gephardt people in Missouri. He needs to win Missouri to keep his string going and delegate-rich Missouri is a prize worth winning.

Dean will fall back on his union support from AFSME and SEUI in Missouri. There were hard feelings between Gephardt staff and those unions before. Missouri will be a very interesting battleground on Feb. 3. Aides to Mr. Gephardt said on Monday that he would not endorse anyone before the contest there.

Kerry will receive the benefit of being the double winner and money should come in. He will also receive more press attention than the other candidates in the upcoming states because of his wins.

A state to watch is Oklahoma, where Rep. Dick Gephardt had run up a large number of endorsements from union members and party faithful. If these previous Gephardt supporters start going in mass to Kerry in Oklahoma, Dean will have a hard time putting up the firewall.

Dean, it seems, is interested in visiting Michigan, Washington and Wisconsin. He may be at $5 million in the bank at this point. Will those Deanies throw their plastic credit cards at the cyber-bat and keep Dean alive? How long will it take for the Deanies to pay off this credit card financed campaign? Will they provide the increasing millions of dollars to rollover the Democrat establishment and win the nomination? How bloody will this get? Will Dean get a million contributors at $100 each?

It could get very bloody, according to the Washington Post:

But House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) said it will probably be another month before the nomination is certain. "Kerry has been impressive," she said, "but we have to see how this plays out in the rest of the country."

The LA Times reports:

Dean's failure to win the primary is ominous for his presidential hopes. New Hampshire has among the country's greatest concentrations of highly educated, socially liberal voters, the group that had been most attracted to his candidacy.

More than 60 % of Tuesday's voters held at least a four-year college degree; the share of college graduates casting ballots in South Carolina, Missouri and Oklahoma — some of the key contests next Tuesday — is likely to be much smaller.

Dean did best only among voters who described themselves as "very liberal," while Kerry carried moderates, liberals and conservatives.  (1/28/2004)

  • “I think we already look like Kool Aid Drinkers, who happened to get ripped off by our big brother Joe [Trippi]” – on the Dean weblog.

  • “…until we get some answers, I cannot keep pouring money into a bottomless pit, nor can I continue to ask people to work on the campaign when those of us who have been out carrying the water and getting people involved just got a painful kidney punch by.” – on the Dean weblog.

  • "I think you're going to see a leaner and meaner organization," Howard Dean. "It's not going to be a front-runner's campaign. It's going to be a long, long war of attrition.'

  • "I did not ask Joe to leave," Howard Dean said. "I hope he'll come back after he's thought this through a bit."

  • If your campaign is beset by money problems, management problems, and personnel problems, the best solution is probably not to seek advice from Al Gore.  -- writes ABC’s The Note.

  • I once wrote that the only way a first lady could have her own job was if she were a brain surgeon. Only then could she leave the West Wing, open a cranium, and come home for dinner without incurring public criticism. Nobody would trash her clothes -- surgical green -- and her beeper could go off in the middle of a boring state dinner. (Is it too late for Judy Dean to change her specialty?)  -- writes Ellen Goodman.  1/29/2004)

Dean Blog Blames Trippi 

Howard Dean rocked the Dean Blog (web log) late yesterday as news broke out on MSNBC and DRUDGE of the firing/resignation of campaign manager Joe Trippi.

The news hit at 4:40 pm, and the timing could not have been worse.

For two hours prior, Dean bloggers had peppered the site with worried questions regarding the financial status of the campaign:

“…does anyone know if there is truth to the rumor that we are seriously running out of money after raising $40 million???”

“…This item is buried in a Wall Street Journal story on yesterday's primary: "The major Democratic contenders all have nearly exhausted their campaign treasuries; advisers say that even Mr. Dean, who raised an unmatched $40 million in 2003, has less than $5 million left.”

“…I'm a poor-a$$ law student. My wife (a med student) and I live off of only my loans, meaning money is always a problem... Please everyone, dig deep. It pained me to do so (and if my wife finds out, she'll kill me)...”

“…Hate to break it to you guys--but we are almost out of money….”

“…My wife and I currently have no income, and we gave $50 to the Dean campaign today. It's money we don't really have…”

Comments about money (or rather, the lack of it) are common on the Dean blog. Some Dean supporters have bragged about their use of (high-interest rate) credit cards to contribute, chastising (bullying?) those not following suit. But yesterday's comments were far from the usual fare of money-martyrs' heroics. For such Deanies, news of an already tapped out war chest brought a stiff dose of reality.

It was into this midst that news of Trippi’s departure hit the blog – rapidly confirmed with a curt letter by Trippi himself. And with that, many Deanies commenced connecting the dots with the campaign’s financial and leadership woes:

“… if 35 million has been spent on two states then that’s outrageous. It's been reported that Dean only found out a couple of days ago that the money has been squandered. I don't want to diss Trippi but could it have something to do with him? Whoever it is it's pretty unacceptable cuz it's your [the bloggers’]money!”

“…What did you do with our $40 million dollars, Joe? We got our asses handed to us in Iowa and NH, and we can't make payroll. I'm VERY angry at you …”

“… Trippi's critics in the campaign had complained to Dean about the massive TV ad expenditures in Iowa and New Hampshire, a share of which went to the media firm run by Trippi and Steve McMahon….”

“…Dean raised 40 million. Spent 35 million in Iowa and NH. Asked staff to defer pay for at least 2 weeks. Got rid of Trippi who wanted to focus on a few key states. Brought in Neal who wants to play everywhere. Has been told point blank by backers in Congress that he needs a win soon. Steve Grossman is saying Dean needs a win in the next two weeks and one assumes he is talking big states (not Del, Maine, or ND). Talk all you want about bats. But it is bottom of the ninth, 1 out, you're down by 5 and people are leaving the stands. The eagles have left your standards. The ravens croaked on your standards after Iowa. Now even the ravens are gone. But the vultures are hanging over you…”

It looks like the Dean campaign is in for another rough stretch.

YAAAAAARL!    (1/29/2004)

Dean pulls ads from Super 7 States

“I think we already look like Kool Aid Drinkers, who happened to get ripped off
by our big brother Joe [Trippi],” said a Deanie on the Dean Blog.

Stop the presses! It looks like there’s a bit more to the Dean Campaign than a change of regime. Accusations have been flying of a rift between Trippi and Dean concerning participation in all seven states in the Feb. 3rd Super Primaries… Dean was for all seven, Trippi was not. Dean made it public that he would run in all seven.

End of discussion? Not by a long shot!

Landing the axe of discontent on Trippi’s neck, Dean demoted Trippi to a lesser position and anointed former Gore Camp Washington Lobbyist insider Roy Neel as the new CEO for the campaign. To which Trippi responded with a resounding, “I QUIT!” (formally announced as a resignation).

End of discussion? Not by a long shot!

The Dean Blog, long touted as the bulwark of the campaign, was already sniffing blood in their own waters. Yesterday the Deanies online were worrying about nasty no-money rumors… that the campaign has already spent $35 of the $40 million raised, with little to show for it AND a long way still to go. [see news story accompanying cartoon “Big Spender”] Into that muddle of posted comments came the news that Trippi was gone, BUT well fatted by the $$$ commission Trippi’s own ad agency garnished doing all the TV ads for the campaign. Salted into that was revelation of Dean staffers being asked to take a two-week pay deferment. Thus, some reality slowly sunk in at the Dean blog.

To this group of already sore and testy (and broke) Deanies came today’s blow that the campaign has PULLED ADS OUT of the seven states in the Feb. 3rd primaries. For a group that’s famous for their anger and denial thereof, even they could not spin their angst as “hope.” Pulling TV ads spelled D-I-S-A-S-T-E-R. And “mo-money” turned to “no-money”…

“WTF – we’re pulling out our ads in all seven states? Maybe there’s more to this money thing than we think…”

“Face it, the money’s gone. They had to pull the ads. Why do you think they asked staffers to take a 2 week pay deferment?”

“I think we already look like Kool Aid Drinkers, who happened to get ripped off by our big brother Joe [Trippi]”

Numerous Deanies decried the situation, posting demands for a full accounting of the facts from Dean Headquarters (in Burlington, Vermont):

“It seems the campaign has lost sight of the supporters who got them this far.”

“I have been on board for a few years now. The silence is deafening!! I am a prominent supporter in 2 special interest groups, and need answers to serious questions about this campaign.

1. How do I explain to supporters in the 2/3 states that all the work they did is now down the toilet because the campaign p!ssed away $40 MILLION DOLLARS and now can't compete? WE NEED TO KNOW THE TRUTH

2. Sounds more and more like Trippi set up a good deal for himself -- let's see -- 15% of $30 MILLION spent on advertising = a cool $4.5 MILLION for Trippi and his firm. And, Dean staffers are being asked to skip their paychecks??? And Trippi's firm still has the ad contract??? SOMETHING IS VERY, VERY WRONG HERE. WE NEED TO KNOW THE TRUTH

3. I hope the media reads the blog and runs with this since we are not getting answers from people who have them. People gave up their Christmas so money could go to this campaign, people made sacrifices for this campaign, people have given their lives to this campaign -- to have the money spent irresponsibly?? WE NEED TO KNOW THE TRUTH

But until we get some answers, I cannot keep pouring money into a bottomless pit, nor can I continue to ask people to work on the campaign when those of us who have been out carrying the water and getting people involved just got a painful kidney punch by

End of discussion? Not by a LONG shot…   (1/29/2004)

Dean: Reorganize!

Roy Neel, a longtime aide to former Vice President Al Gore and an Adjunct Professor of Political Science at Vanderbilt University has been moved into heading the Howard Dean campaign. Dean campaign manager Joe Trippi resigned the campaign after Neel was brought in. Trippi left a short note on the Dean Blog urging the support of the cause. Dean made a statement to the press saying he hoped Trippi would return to the campaign.

“Howard Dean is the guy who is going to fight for the country for real change and [I] hope people stick with him," Trippi said as he left campaign headquarters with his wife, Kathy Lash, who also worked for Dean.

"If it hadn't been for Joe Trippi, we wouldn't be where we are," Dean said

From 1977 to 1994, Neel served in key roles in Al Gore's Washington operations, becoming Chief of Staff for Senator and later Vice President Gore. Prior to leaving the White House, he served as President Clinton's Deputy Chief of Staff, responsible for coordinating all policy and communications activities for the President. Neel also managed the Vice President's campaign in 1992 and was a central figure in the Clinton-Gore transition that followed that successful election.

During 2000, Neel was Director of Vice President Gore’s presidential transition planning. During the post-election challenge in Florida, he managed the transition efforts for Gore.

“He was replaced by Roy Neel, who to many epitomizes the type of Washington insider Dean rails against in every speech,” writes the USA today.

ABC’s The Note reports:

Several said they planned to quit. The fear of mass restructuring was so high early Wednesday that several junior to middle level campaign aides began to call reporters to ask them what they knew.

Others said they looked forward to a manager, Mr. Neel, who had a more easy temperament than the famously up-tempo Trippi.

Mr. Neel's largest and most pressing internal problem, according to other senior aides, is the budget.

Supporters are beginning to be shaken by Dean’s failure to win. Congressional support and Gore’s advice on his campaign are having increasing sway over the direction he is now taking. Dean has asked his staff to defer payment for two weeks.

"Success in the next 10 days is absolutely essential" for the campaign to remain competitive financially, and Dean knows it,” campaign spokesman Steve Grossman said.

"I think if he had knocked out these first two states you would have seen some of the regular Democratic donors moving in his direction, but I don't see that," said Harold Ickes, a former Clinton administration official now raising money for a Democratic-leaning political group. "He's fortunate that he's not relying on the big donors."

Dean scheduled a rally Thursday at Michigan State University, choosing to re-emerge after his New Hampshire loss in a state that doesn't even vote on Tuesday.

Again, ABC’s The Note reports that:

Despite published reports that the campaign has about $5 million on hand, ABC News has learned from several with access to the numbers that the actual figure is somewhat less than that.

"If we had $5 million in the bank, we would not be asked to defer our paychecks," one senior member of the staff said yesterday.

MSNBC’s The First Read reports on the internecine fighting that went on within the Dean Campaign:

Management isn’t, however, the only reason Trippi ultimately felt he had little choice but to resign. Since his hiring, he has been feuding subtly with Governor Dean’s longtime aide Kate O’Conner. Concerned with the details and always at the Governor’s side, O’Connor is a uniquely powerful arbiter of the campaign’s direction and aides noted she didn’t deal well with the chaos in Burlington. Indeed, it seems many of Dean original staffers didn’t and with Trippi’s resignation Dean’s longtime Vermont cohorts are now more firmly in charge, leaving questions as to how the campaign’s new CEO will fit in.

The American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees political action committee has spent more than $1.6 million on get-out-the-vote drives and ads promoting Dean independent of his campaign. Their efforts are continuing in full support of Dean.

There were growing concerns about the quality of the television ads provided by Trippi’s firm who was exclusive in producing ads for Dean. The Boston Globe reported:

"Please hire a pro ad agency and use those millions we've given you to buy EFFECTIVE ads," wrote Bradford in Jacksonville, Fla. "The ones in Iowa and New Hampshire were wretched."

McMahon and Squier will continue to make ads for the campaign, but as part of a broader team, said one top adviser.

The place where Dean hopes to provide the win that Congressional supporters have told him he must achieve is in Wisconsin on Feb. 17. Dean will compete in all of the states hoping to achieve viability and the awarding of some of the 297 delegates that are up on Feb. 3. It takes a 15 percent viability threshold to win delegates.

There is only one way to secure the Democratic nomination for president and that is to secure 2,161 delegates to the Democratic National Convention.

The current delegate count is: Howard Dean 111; John Kerry 102; Dick Gephardt 44; John Edwards 37; Wesley Clark 30; Joe Lieberman 21; Carol Moseley Braun 3; Al Sharpton 3; and Dennis Kucinich 2.  (1/29/2004)

  • “What’s Dean’s new mantra? Leaner and meaner? Perhaps more apt would be, ‘boasted and toasted.’” – Iowa Presidential Watch.

  • "This race is about the next seven weeks, not the next seven states. We will not let the pundits call this race, the people will, and that means this race comes down to winning delegates. Today, Howard Dean is winning the nomination fight with 114 of the delegates." -- Dean campaign memo.  (1/30/2004)

Dean’s Dot Bomb?

Articles in the Toronto Star and the NY Times are raking over the fading embers of a once hot Howard Dean and his Cyber Campaign. Consensus? Howard Dot Com is a Dot Bomb… here’s an excerpt from the NY Times opinion:

"Howard Dean's implosion calls to mind the fate of too many high-flying dot-com companies in the wake of the 2000-2001 crash. Dr. Dean relished being anointed as the Internet presidential candidate last year, when he was riding high, but now the title is proving disconcertingly prophetic. …Dr. Dean didn't just use the Internet as a tool. His entire message and organization were imbued with an online ethos. Joe Trippi, the recently ousted campaign manager, essentially created the 'Dean.com' brand. Dr. Dean had to ask in a meeting early in the campaign what a blog was ... In retrospect, as at many other dot-coms, the campaign's self-congratulatory buzz and hype masked plenty of serious problems with the business plan. Dr. Dean's volunteers and supporters were like online investors who promoted a company's stock before a single profit -- or vote, in this case." (1/30/2004)

Poll Watching

Zogby's surveys, Kerry dominates in Missouri, with 45 percent. Running a distant second in that state is North Carolina Sen. John Edwards at 11 percent. If these numbers hold, Kerry could sweep all 74 of Missouri's delegates.

Dean was at 9 percent, Sen. Joseph Lieberman was at 4 percent, Clark at 3 percent, Al Sharpton at 2 percent and Rep. Dennis Kucinich at 1 percent.

In Arizona, Kerry has 38 percent over Clark’s 17 percent, with Dean at 12 percent, Edwards and Lieberman 6 percent, Kucinich 2 percent and Sharpton 1 percent.

Clark was leading Kerry in Oklahoma 27 percent to 19 percent, with Edwards right behind at 17 percent, Dean at 9 percent, Lieberman at 5 percent and Sharpton and Kucinich at 1 percent.  (1/30/2004)

 

 

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